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Championship
Referee: J Simpson
Birmingham
T S U S S
1–1
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
1,7
1,8
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,2
This season — Championship · 42/42 matches
Win Ø 29%
29%
29%
Points per game
1,1
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 29%
36%
21%
Both score Ø 39%
40%
38%
Average goals
2,0
1,8
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%
18 Shots 4
6 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Birmingham 19. · Nott'm Forest 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Norwich 43 27 9 7 +34 90
2 Watford 43 25 10 8 +32 85
3 Bournemouth 42 22 11 9 +32 77
4 Brentford 40 19 14 7 +30 71
5 Barnsley 40 21 8 11 +12 71
6 Swansea 40 20 9 11 +14 69
7 Reading 42 19 10 13 +11 67
8 QPR 43 17 11 15 +0 62
9 Cardiff 43 16 13 14 +12 61
10 Middlesbrough 43 17 9 17 +3 60
11 Millwall 43 14 17 12 -2 59
12 Stoke 43 14 14 15 -2 56
13 Luton 41 16 8 17 -10 56
14 Preston 43 15 7 21 -11 52
15 Coventry 43 13 12 18 -16 51
16 Bristol City 43 15 6 22 -16 51
17 Blackburn 43 13 11 19 +5 50
18 Nott'm Forest 42 12 13 17 -7 49
19 Birmingham 42 12 12 18 -18 48
20 Huddersfield 42 12 11 19 -17 47
21 Sheffield Weds 43 12 9 22 -19 45
22 Derby 43 11 10 22 -20 43
23 Rotherham 41 11 6 24 -14 39
24 Wycombe 43 9 10 24 -33 37

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Birmingham Nott'm Forest
J. Leko 🔁
↦ S. Hogan
19′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 M. Roberts
Iván Sánchez
49′
R. McGree 🔁
↦ Iván Sánchez
63′
63′
🔁 G. Murray
↦ L. Taylor
64′
🔁 L. Grabban
↦ F. Krovinović
64′
🔁 A. Knockaert
↦ L. Freeman
78′
🔁 Cafú
↦ J. Garner
R. Harper 🔁
↦ G. Gardner
87′
A. Miller 🔁
↦ Jérémie Bela
87′
98′
L. Grabban 1–1
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Birmingham

4-2-3-1
30 N. Etheridge G
12 H. Dean D
2 M. Colin D
4 M. Roberts D
3 K. Pedersen D
20 G. Gardner M
17 Iván Sánchez M
11 Jérémie Bela M
34 I. Šunjić M
10 L. Jutkiewicz F
9 S. Hogan M
Bench (9)
14 J. Leko
18 R. McGree
24 R. Harper
41 A. Miller
27 C. Trueman
19 San José
42 S. Seddon
5 G. Friend
16 S. Cosgrove

Coach: L. Bowyer

Nott'm Forest

4-2-3-1
30 B. Samba G
2 C. Christie D
26 S. McKenna D
24 T. Blackett D
4 J. Worrall D
15 L. Freeman M
27 F. Krovinović M
22 R. Yates M
37 J. Garner M
33 L. Taylor F
17 A. Mighten M
Bench (9)
25 G. Murray
7 L. Grabban
28 A. Knockaert
18 Cafú
16 C. Jenkinson
12 J. Smith
6 L. Mbe Soh
5 Yuri Ribeiro
8 J. Colback

Coach: C. Hughton

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,50
U ✓
3,07
B
3,05
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,54
U2,5 ✓
1,50
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Simpson · 121 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.