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La Liga

Referee: César Soto Grado

Ath Madrid

S S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Valencia

U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 38%

56%

20%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

38%

40%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

47%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,01 xG 1,17

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Valencia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	13	1	2	+27	+15.2	40
2	Real Madrid	16	11	3	2	+17	+20.6	36
3	Villarreal	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.8	35
4	Ath Madrid	16	9	4	3	+13	+8.9	31
5	Espanol	15	8	3	4	+3	+6.3	27
6	Betis	15	6	6	3	+6	+6.0	24
7	Ath Bilbao	16	7	2	7	-5	+4.7	23
8	Getafe	15	6	2	7	-4	-3.9	20
9	Elche	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.1	19
10	Celta	15	4	7	4	-1	-2.7	19
11	Alaves	15	5	3	7	-2	+1.3	18
12	Vallecano	15	4	5	6	-3	+1.1	17
13	Sevilla	15	5	2	8	-4	-11.2	17
14	Sociedad	16	4	4	8	-4	-0.0	16
15	Osasuna	15	4	3	8	-4	-3.1	15
16	Valencia	15	3	6	6	-9	-5.0	15
17	Girona	16	3	6	7	-15	-11.8	15
18	Mallorca	15	3	5	7	-7	-11.3	14
19	Oviedo	15	2	4	9	-15	-13.9	10
20	Levante	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	+21	+12.5	24
2	Villarreal	8	7	1	0	+16	+7.3	22
3	Ath Madrid	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
4	Espanol	9	6	1	2	+3	+3.2	19
5	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+9	+10.9	18
6	Elche	8	4	4	0	+7	+1.5	16
7	Ath Bilbao	9	5	1	3	+0	+6.5	16
8	Alaves	8	4	2	2	+3	+2.7	14
9	Betis	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.8	13
10	Osasuna	7	4	1	2	+3	+1.2	13
11	Valencia	8	3	3	2	+3	+4.4	12
12	Getafe	7	3	2	2	+2	-2.8	11
13	Sociedad	8	3	1	4	-1	+2.2	10
14	Mallorca	7	2	4	1	-1	-3.4	10
15	Girona	8	2	3	3	-6	-7.0	9
16	Vallecano	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.0	7
17	Sevilla	7	2	1	4	-2	-2.1	7
18	Oviedo	8	1	3	4	-8	-8.1	6
19	Celta	8	0	5	3	-5	+0.1	5
20	Levante	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	5	3	1	+8	+9.8	18
2	Barcelona	8	5	1	2	+6	+2.6	16
3	Celta	7	4	2	1	+4	-2.8	14
4	Villarreal	7	4	1	2	+2	+1.5	13
5	Betis	7	2	5	0	+3	+2.2	11
6	Sevilla	8	3	1	4	-2	-9.1	10
7	Vallecano	9	3	1	5	-3	-2.0	10
8	Ath Madrid	8	2	3	3	-1	-3.2	9
9	Getafe	8	3	0	5	-6	-1.1	9
10	Espanol	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.1	8
11	Levante	9	2	2	5	-2	+0.6	8
12	Ath Bilbao	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.8	7
13	Sociedad	8	1	3	4	-3	-2.2	6
14	Girona	8	1	3	4	-9	-4.8	6
15	Alaves	7	1	1	5	-5	-1.5	4
16	Mallorca	8	1	1	6	-6	-7.9	4
17	Oviedo	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.7	4
18	Elche	7	0	3	4	-6	-5.6	3
19	Valencia	7	0	3	4	-12	-9.4	3
20	Osasuna	8	0	2	6	-7	-4.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.