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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Birmingham

S S T T T

0–1

Full-time

Luton

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Championship · 33/30 matches

Win Ø 37%

30%

43%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

48%

37%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

43%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

8 Shots 11

0 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 19. · Luton 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	33	21	10	2	+36	73
2	Sheffield United	32	18	7	7	+24	61
3	Middlesbrough	32	17	6	9	+19	57
4	Blackburn	33	16	4	13	-2	52
5	Millwall	32	14	8	10	+7	50
6	Watford	33	13	11	9	+4	50
7	Norwich	33	14	7	12	+9	49
8	Sunderland	33	13	9	11	+11	48
9	Luton	30	13	9	8	+7	48
10	West Brom	32	12	9	11	+6	45
11	Coventry	31	12	8	11	+2	44
12	Swansea	33	11	9	13	-4	42
13	Hull	33	11	9	13	-9	42
14	Preston	32	11	9	12	-9	42
15	Bristol City	32	10	11	11	+1	41
16	Reading	32	12	5	15	-12	41
17	Stoke	33	11	7	15	-1	40
18	QPR	33	10	9	14	-12	39
19	Birmingham	33	10	8	15	-7	38
20	Rotherham	33	8	12	13	-9	36
21	Cardiff	33	9	8	16	-11	35
22	Huddersfield	32	8	7	17	-13	31
23	Blackpool	33	7	10	16	-16	31
24	Wigan	32	7	10	15	-21	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	17	12	5	0	+23	41
2	Blackburn	16	11	1	4	+9	34
3	Sheffield United	16	10	3	3	+18	33
4	Middlesbrough	16	9	5	2	+13	32
5	Millwall	16	9	5	2	+13	32
6	Reading	15	9	3	3	+7	30
7	Watford	16	8	4	4	+8	28
8	Coventry	16	8	4	4	+6	28
9	West Brom	16	7	5	4	+7	26
10	Norwich	17	7	4	6	+4	25
11	Rotherham	16	6	5	5	+6	23
12	Sunderland	16	6	5	5	+4	23
13	Bristol City	17	6	5	6	+3	23
14	Swansea	16	7	2	7	+2	23
15	Hull	17	6	4	7	-5	22
16	Luton	15	5	6	4	+3	21
17	Huddersfield	16	6	3	7	+0	21
18	Birmingham	17	5	5	7	+0	20
19	Cardiff	17	5	5	7	-3	20
20	Stoke	16	5	4	7	+2	19
21	QPR	16	5	4	7	-5	19
22	Blackpool	16	4	5	7	-4	17
23	Preston	16	3	5	8	-11	14
24	Wigan	17	3	4	10	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	16	9	5	2	+13	32
2	Sheffield United	16	8	4	4	+6	28
3	Preston	16	8	4	4	+2	28
4	Luton	15	8	3	4	+4	27
5	Sunderland	17	7	4	6	+7	25
6	Middlesbrough	16	8	1	7	+6	25
7	Norwich	16	7	3	6	+5	24
8	Watford	17	5	7	5	-4	22
9	Stoke	17	6	3	8	-3	21
10	Hull	16	5	5	6	-4	20
11	QPR	17	5	5	7	-7	20
12	West Brom	16	5	4	7	-1	19
13	Swansea	17	4	7	6	-6	19
14	Bristol City	15	4	6	5	-2	18
15	Wigan	15	4	6	5	-3	18
16	Millwall	16	5	3	8	-6	18
17	Birmingham	16	5	3	8	-7	18
18	Blackburn	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Coventry	15	4	4	7	-4	16
20	Cardiff	16	4	3	9	-8	15
21	Blackpool	17	3	5	9	-12	14
22	Rotherham	17	2	7	8	-15	13
23	Reading	17	3	2	12	-19	11
24	Huddersfield	16	2	4	10	-13	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.