Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Hammarby
Malmo FF
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Malmo FF
|
27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | +31 | 56 |
| 2 |
Elfsborg
|
28 | 12 | 13 | 3 | +11 | 49 |
| 3 |
Djurgarden
|
28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | +15 | 45 |
| 4 |
Hacken
|
27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | +13 | 44 |
| 5 |
Norrkoping
|
27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +11 | 40 |
| 6 |
Hammarby
|
27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | +2 | 40 |
| 7 | Orebro | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | -2 | 39 |
| 8 |
Mjallby
|
27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 |
AIK
|
28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 38 |
| 10 |
Sirius
|
27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 | Ostersunds | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | -7 | 33 |
| 12 |
Varberg
|
27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -3 | 31 |
| 13 |
Goteborg
|
27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -12 | 27 |
| 14 |
Kalmar
|
28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -20 | 24 |
| 15 | Falkenbergs | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -17 | 23 |
| 16 |
Helsingborg
|
28 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -16 | 22 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Varberg
Hammarby
Hammarby
Hacken
Hammarby
Hammarby
Mjallby
Hammarby
Djurgarden
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.