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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Ipswich

S U S S S

3–2

Full-time

Plymouth

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Plymouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,2

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 57%

83%

31%

Points per game

2,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

50%

69%

Both score Ø 56%

50%

62%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

2,2

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,01 xG 1,61

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 2. · Plymouth 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	13	12	0	1	+20	+12.1	36
2	Ipswich	12	10	1	1	+13	+8.1	31
3	Southampton	14	7	3	4	-1	+3.8	24
4	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+8	+9.5	22
5	Preston	13	6	4	3	-2	-3.1	22
6	West Brom	13	5	5	3	+6	+0.9	20
7	Cardiff	13	6	2	5	+5	-0.2	20
8	Hull	13	5	5	3	+3	-0.3	20
9	Middlesbrough	13	6	2	5	+1	+8.6	20
10	Sunderland	13	6	1	6	+6	+4.0	19
11	Blackburn	13	6	1	6	-2	-0.3	19
12	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	+1	-0.7	18
13	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-1	+0.4	18
14	Norwich	12	5	2	5	+1	-1.1	17
15	Watford	13	4	4	5	+0	+1.3	16
16	Millwall	13	4	4	5	-3	-4.3	16
17	Stoke	13	5	1	7	-4	-2.0	16
18	Plymouth	13	4	3	6	+2	-4.5	15
19	Swansea	13	4	3	6	+1	-0.2	15
20	Coventry	13	3	6	4	+1	+5.2	15
21	Huddersfield	14	3	5	6	-13	-5.5	14
22	Rotherham	12	2	3	7	-10	-13.8	9
23	QPR	13	2	2	9	-15	-10.3	8
24	Sheffield Weds	13	0	3	10	-17	-7.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	7	6	0	1	+8	+5.2	18
2	Ipswich	6	5	0	1	+8	+7.0	15
3	Leeds	7	4	3	0	+8	+8.5	15
4	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
5	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.6	14
6	Preston	7	4	2	1	+0	-1.8	14
7	Cardiff	6	4	1	1	+5	+1.8	13
8	Plymouth	7	4	0	3	+7	-0.9	12
9	Norwich	6	4	0	2	+3	+1.8	12
10	Stoke	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.3	12
11	Watford	7	3	2	2	+5	+4.0	11
12	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+1	+4.5	11
13	Coventry	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.0	10
14	Middlesbrough	6	3	1	2	+1	+5.2	10
15	Sunderland	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.7	9
16	Blackburn	6	3	0	3	-3	+0.5	9
17	Rotherham	6	2	2	2	+1	-5.2	8
18	Swansea	7	2	2	3	+0	-0.2	8
19	Bristol City	7	2	2	3	+0	+0.3	8
20	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-6	-2.8	8
21	Hull	6	1	4	1	+1	+0.6	7
22	Millwall	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.7	7
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	2	4	-6	-2.3	2
24	QPR	5	0	1	4	-9	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	6	6	0	0	+12	+6.9	18
2	Ipswich	6	5	1	0	+5	+1.1	16
3	Hull	7	4	1	2	+2	-0.9	13
4	Southampton	7	4	1	2	-2	-0.7	13
5	Sunderland	7	3	1	3	+4	+3.3	10
6	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+1	-0.8	10
7	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.0	10
8	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.4	10
9	Millwall	6	2	3	1	+1	-2.7	9
10	Preston	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.3	8
11	Swansea	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.0	7
12	Cardiff	7	2	1	4	+0	-2.0	7
13	Leeds	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.1	7
14	QPR	8	2	1	5	-6	-7.1	7
15	West Brom	6	1	3	2	+1	-1.9	6
16	Huddersfield	7	1	3	3	-7	-2.7	6
17	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-2	-3.0	5
18	Coventry	7	1	2	4	-3	+1.3	5
19	Watford	6	1	2	3	-5	-2.6	5
20	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-5	-0.7	4
21	Birmingham	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.2	4
22	Plymouth	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.6	3
23	Rotherham	6	0	1	5	-11	-8.6	1
24	Sheffield Weds	7	0	1	6	-11	-5.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.