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Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

M'gladbach

U T S U T

2–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,2

Scored

1,7

Conceded

2,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

13%

25%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

88%

63%

Both score Ø 69%

75%

63%

Average goals

4,1

4,0

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

2,4

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,98 xG 0,36

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 13. · Heidenheim 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	7	1	0	+18	+9.8	22
2	Stuttgart	8	7	0	1	+17	+9.2	21
3	Bayern Munich	8	6	2	0	+19	+15.7	20
4	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+9	+7.0	20
5	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+12	+1.3	17
6	Hoffenheim	8	5	0	3	+3	+0.4	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.3	13
8	Freiburg	8	4	1	3	-5	-0.8	13
9	Wolfsburg	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.3	12
10	Augsburg	8	2	2	4	-4	+0.1	8
11	Heidenheim	8	2	1	5	-8	-9.6	7
12	Darmstadt	8	2	1	5	-9	-6.1	7
13	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-5	-0.8	6
14	Werder Bremen	8	2	0	6	-6	-4.1	6
15	Union Berlin	8	2	0	6	-6	-1.0	6
16	Bochum	9	0	5	4	-15	-10.2	5
17	FC Koln	8	1	1	6	-8	-4.9	4
18	Mainz	9	0	3	6	-15	-6.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+5	+5.7	13
2	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+14	+6.8	12
3	Leverkusen	4	4	0	0	+11	+7.3	12
4	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+12	+9.6	10
5	Wolfsburg	4	3	0	1	+4	+1.7	9
6	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.2	9
7	RB Leipzig	4	2	2	0	+7	+0.5	8
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.2	8
9	Werder Bremen	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
10	Heidenheim	4	2	0	2	-1	-3.5	6
11	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.0	5
12	Darmstadt	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.0	4
13	Bochum	4	0	3	1	-2	+0.8	3
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.3	3
15	FC Koln	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.0	3
16	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.5	3
17	M'gladbach	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.6	1
18	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.8	12
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+7	+6.1	10
3	Leverkusen	4	3	1	0	+7	+2.5	10
4	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	+5	+0.8	9
5	Stuttgart	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.5	9
6	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
7	M'gladbach	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.8	5
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.5	5
9	Freiburg	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.0	4
10	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-1	+1.5	3
11	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
12	Wolfsburg	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.4	3
13	Darmstadt	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
14	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-8	-4.9	2
15	Bochum	5	0	2	3	-13	-11.0	2
16	FC Koln	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.9	1
17	Heidenheim	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
18	Werder Bremen	4	0	0	4	-6	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.