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Allsvenskan

Referee: M Al Hakim

Varberg

T T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Degerfors

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varberg Degerfors

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

0,8

Conceded

3,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-2,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 19%

11%

26%

Points per game

0,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

59%

63%

Both score Ø 49%

41%

56%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,2

2,1

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,60 xG 1,96

51% Possession 49%

21 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 5

13 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Varberg 16. · Degerfors 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elfsborg	27	19	3	5	+33	+5.7	60
2	Malmo FF	27	18	4	5	+35	+9.3	58
3	Hacken	27	17	3	7	+30	+8.5	54
4	Djurgarden	28	15	5	8	+8	+2.5	50
5	Kalmar	27	12	6	9	-1	-4.9	42
6	Varnamo	27	13	2	12	+3	+0.7	41
7	Hammarby	27	11	8	8	+2	+1.5	41
8	Norrkoping	27	11	5	11	+2	+3.3	38
9	Sirius	27	10	5	12	+3	+7.9	35
10	Mjallby	27	10	5	12	-3	-2.6	35
11	AIK	27	8	7	12	-6	-1.0	31
12	Halmstad	27	8	7	12	-17	-4.8	31
13	Goteborg	27	7	9	11	-4	-1.0	30
14	Brommapojkarna	28	8	3	17	-15	-3.2	27
15	Degerfors	27	7	3	17	-31	-10.6	24
16	Varberg	27	3	5	19	-39	-11.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hacken	14	13	0	1	+29	+4.8	39
2	Malmo FF	14	10	3	1	+26	+4.0	33
3	Elfsborg	14	10	2	2	+20	+1.1	32
4	Djurgarden	14	10	2	2	+12	+4.9	32
5	Hammarby	13	8	3	2	+8	+0.3	27
6	Kalmar	13	7	3	3	+1	-2.7	24
7	AIK	13	5	5	3	+5	+3.7	20
8	Norrkoping	13	6	2	5	+2	+0.2	20
9	Sirius	14	6	1	7	+6	+8.3	19
10	Varnamo	14	6	1	7	+0	+1.8	19
11	Goteborg	13	5	3	5	+7	-0.0	18
12	Degerfors	14	5	2	7	-5	-2.4	17
13	Halmstad	14	4	5	5	-6	-3.1	17
14	Brommapojkarna	14	4	2	8	-6	-0.0	14
15	Mjallby	13	3	3	7	-4	-4.8	12
16	Varberg	13	1	3	9	-19	-1.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elfsborg	13	9	1	3	+13	+4.7	28
2	Malmo FF	13	8	1	4	+9	+5.2	25
3	Mjallby	14	7	2	5	+1	+2.2	23
4	Varnamo	13	7	1	5	+3	-1.1	22
5	Norrkoping	14	5	3	6	+0	+3.1	18
6	Kalmar	14	5	3	6	-2	-2.1	18
7	Djurgarden	14	5	3	6	-4	-2.4	18
8	Sirius	13	4	4	5	-3	-0.4	16
9	Hacken	13	4	3	6	+1	+3.7	15
10	Hammarby	14	3	5	6	-6	+1.2	14
11	Halmstad	13	4	2	7	-11	-1.8	14
12	Brommapojkarna	14	4	1	9	-9	-3.2	13
13	Goteborg	14	2	6	6	-11	-1.0	12
14	AIK	14	3	2	9	-11	-4.8	11
15	Varberg	14	2	2	10	-20	-9.7	8
16	Degerfors	13	2	1	10	-26	-8.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.