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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Watford

S S U U U

0–1

Full-time

Cardiff

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 29/28 matches

Win Ø 37%

34%

39%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

52%

54%

Both score Ø 51%

55%

46%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,14 xG 0,47

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 9. · Cardiff 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	29	22	3	4	+36	+23.0	69
2	Ipswich	28	17	8	3	+16	+13.0	59
3	Southampton	27	16	7	4	+20	+20.3	55
4	Leeds	28	16	6	6	+24	+24.6	54
5	West Brom	27	13	6	8	+14	+7.1	45
6	Coventry	29	11	11	7	+13	+6.4	44
7	Sunderland	29	13	4	12	+8	+12.0	43
8	Hull	28	12	6	10	+4	+5.9	42
9	Watford	29	10	11	8	+7	+2.5	41
10	Norwich	27	12	5	10	+4	-5.3	41
11	Middlesbrough	28	12	4	12	+1	+13.4	40
12	Preston	29	11	6	12	-12	-10.9	39
13	Bristol City	30	10	8	12	-1	+0.7	38
14	Cardiff	28	11	4	13	-4	-12.7	37
15	Plymouth	28	8	9	11	+0	-12.0	33
16	Millwall	29	8	9	12	-7	-7.5	33
17	Swansea	29	8	9	12	-8	-11.7	33
18	Blackburn	28	10	3	15	-12	-4.3	33
19	Stoke	29	8	8	13	-9	-0.8	32
20	Birmingham	28	8	8	12	-10	-5.8	32
21	Huddersfield	29	5	13	11	-18	-12.7	28
22	QPR	29	6	7	16	-15	-9.8	25
23	Sheffield Weds	29	6	5	18	-24	-5.9	23
24	Rotherham	28	3	10	15	-27	-29.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	15	12	1	2	+22	+13.0	37
2	Leeds	14	10	4	0	+20	+17.6	34
3	Ipswich	14	10	3	1	+14	+14.0	33
4	West Brom	14	9	3	2	+13	+9.3	30
5	Southampton	13	9	2	2	+18	+15.2	29
6	Plymouth	14	8	3	3	+13	-2.2	27
7	Sunderland	15	9	0	6	+7	+8.9	27
8	Coventry	15	6	8	1	+9	+6.0	26
9	Norwich	13	8	2	3	+8	+3.4	26
10	Preston	14	7	2	5	-4	-3.8	23
11	Hull	14	6	4	4	+7	+7.8	22
12	Birmingham	14	5	6	3	+3	-0.3	21
13	Bristol City	15	6	3	6	+1	+1.7	21
14	Watford	14	5	5	4	+7	+8.1	20
15	Cardiff	14	6	2	6	+0	-7.6	20
16	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+0	+8.6	20
17	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-1	-1.5	17
18	Blackburn	14	5	2	7	-5	+1.8	17
19	Stoke	14	4	4	6	-4	+3.3	16
20	Sheffield Weds	15	4	4	7	-5	+1.1	16
21	Millwall	15	4	4	7	-7	-1.8	16
22	Rotherham	14	3	6	5	-2	-7.7	15
23	Huddersfield	14	3	6	5	-6	-4.4	15
24	QPR	15	3	4	8	-7	-2.3	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	14	10	2	2	+14	+10.0	32
2	Southampton	14	7	5	2	+2	+5.0	26
3	Ipswich	14	7	5	2	+2	-1.0	26
4	Watford	15	5	6	4	+0	-5.6	21
5	Leeds	14	6	2	6	+4	+7.0	20
6	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+1	+4.8	20
7	Hull	14	6	2	6	-3	-1.9	20
8	Coventry	14	5	3	6	+4	+0.4	18
9	Millwall	14	4	5	5	+0	-5.7	17
10	Bristol City	15	4	5	6	-2	-1.0	17
11	Cardiff	14	5	2	7	-4	-5.1	17
12	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	+3.2	16
13	Stoke	15	4	4	7	-5	-4.2	16
14	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	-7	-6.1	16
15	Swansea	15	4	4	7	-7	-10.2	16
16	Preston	15	4	4	7	-8	-7.1	16
17	West Brom	13	4	3	6	+1	-2.2	15
18	Norwich	14	4	3	7	-4	-8.7	15
19	Huddersfield	15	2	7	6	-12	-8.3	13
20	QPR	14	3	3	8	-8	-7.5	12
21	Birmingham	14	3	2	9	-13	-5.5	11
22	Sheffield Weds	14	2	1	11	-19	-6.9	7
23	Plymouth	14	0	6	8	-13	-9.8	6
24	Rotherham	14	0	4	10	-25	-21.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.