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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Nijmegen

S U S S U

3–1

Full-time

Heracles

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,8

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 30%

33%

26%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

78%

79%

Both score Ø 71%

78%

63%

Average goals

3,7

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,33 xG 0,84

63% Possession 37%

26 Shots 7

12 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 9

7 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 8. · Heracles 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	20	18	2	0	+54	+42.5	56
2	Feyenoord	19	13	4	2	+35	+39.5	43
3	Twente	20	12	5	3	+18	+11.3	41
4	AZ Alkmaar	19	10	5	4	+20	+12.1	35
5	Ajax	20	10	5	5	+11	+9.0	35
6	Go Ahead Eagles	18	7	5	6	+4	-7.8	26
7	Sparta Rotterdam	19	7	5	7	+0	-4.3	26
8	Nijmegen	18	6	7	5	+4	-11.8	25
9	For Sittard	20	6	6	8	-12	+1.1	24
10	Zwolle	19	6	5	8	-4	-5.5	23
11	Almere City	20	6	5	9	-16	-9.8	23
12	Heerenveen	20	6	4	10	-9	-4.7	22
13	Excelsior	20	4	9	7	-5	-8.8	21
14	Utrecht	19	4	8	7	-9	-9.2	20
15	Heracles	19	5	4	10	-20	-13.4	19
16	Waalwijk	20	4	3	13	-20	-9.0	15
17	Volendam	19	3	3	13	-24	-14.6	12
18	Vitesse	19	3	3	13	-27	-16.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+26	+25.8	30
2	Twente	10	8	1	1	+10	+8.4	25
3	Feyenoord	10	6	3	1	+18	+18.6	21
4	AZ Alkmaar	10	6	2	2	+14	+12.4	20
5	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+12	+8.1	20
6	For Sittard	10	5	3	2	+4	+8.5	18
7	Go Ahead Eagles	10	5	2	3	+10	+4.0	17
8	Nijmegen	9	4	2	3	+6	+1.4	14
9	Heerenveen	9	4	2	3	+5	+7.1	14
10	Excelsior	10	2	6	2	+0	-0.3	12
11	Almere City	10	3	3	4	-6	-3.2	12
12	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	+1.3	11
13	Heracles	10	3	2	5	-11	-8.2	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-5	-0.5	9
15	Utrecht	9	1	5	3	-7	-4.7	8
16	Waalwijk	10	2	2	6	-8	-5.1	8
17	Volendam	9	2	1	6	-10	-0.8	7
18	Vitesse	9	1	3	5	-7	-4.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	8	2	0	+28	+16.7	26
2	Feyenoord	9	7	1	1	+17	+20.9	22
3	Sparta Rotterdam	10	5	2	3	+5	-3.8	17
4	Twente	10	4	4	2	+8	+2.9	16
5	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	3	2	+6	-0.3	15
6	Ajax	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.8	15
7	Zwolle	9	3	3	3	+1	-6.9	12
8	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-2	-4.5	12
9	Nijmegen	9	2	5	2	-2	-13.2	11
10	Almere City	10	3	2	5	-10	-6.6	11
11	Excelsior	10	2	3	5	-5	-8.5	9
12	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	3	3	-6	-11.7	9
13	Heracles	9	2	2	5	-9	-5.2	8
14	Heerenveen	11	2	2	7	-14	-11.9	8
15	Waalwijk	10	2	1	7	-12	-3.9	7
16	For Sittard	10	1	3	6	-16	-7.3	6
17	Vitesse	10	2	0	8	-20	-11.5	6
18	Volendam	10	1	2	7	-14	-13.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.