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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Muniz Ruiz

Valencia

S S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Almeria

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Almeria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 21%

41%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

45%

68%

Both score Ø 55%

45%

64%

Average goals

2,4

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,44 xG 1,94

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 8. · Almeria 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	22	18	3	1	+33	+19.7	57
2	Girona	22	17	4	1	+27	+9.4	55
3	Ath Madrid	22	15	2	5	+20	+13.5	47
4	Barcelona	22	14	5	3	+15	+26.7	47
5	Ath Bilbao	23	13	6	4	+21	+17.2	45
6	Sociedad	22	9	9	4	+11	+1.9	36
7	Betis	22	8	10	4	+1	-2.8	34
8	Valencia	22	9	5	8	+1	-1.3	32
9	Las Palmas	22	9	4	9	+3	-14.6	31
10	Getafe	22	7	8	7	-2	-5.9	29
11	Alaves	22	7	5	10	-5	+2.9	26
12	Osasuna	22	7	5	10	-7	-4.5	26
13	Vallecano	22	5	9	8	-9	-3.3	24
14	Villarreal	22	6	5	11	-12	-4.8	23
15	Mallorca	23	3	11	9	-11	-4.8	20
16	Sevilla	22	3	8	11	-9	-9.7	17
17	Celta	22	3	8	11	-11	-3.0	17
18	Cadiz	22	2	10	10	-16	-14.7	16
19	Granada	22	2	5	15	-22	-12.1	11
20	Almeria	22	0	6	16	-28	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	11	1	0	+15	+13.1	34
2	Ath Bilbao	12	9	2	1	+19	+16.0	29
3	Real Madrid	10	9	1	0	+19	+14.8	28
4	Girona	11	9	1	1	+16	+5.8	28
5	Barcelona	12	9	0	3	+9	+13.1	27
6	Betis	11	6	4	1	+7	+5.9	22
7	Getafe	11	6	3	2	+3	-1.8	21
8	Valencia	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
9	Sociedad	11	5	5	1	+7	+0.7	20
10	Las Palmas	11	5	3	3	+5	-5.6	18
11	Alaves	10	5	1	4	+0	+6.7	16
12	Osasuna	11	4	3	4	-2	-0.1	15
13	Mallorca	11	2	7	2	+0	+0.6	13
14	Cadiz	11	2	6	3	-4	+1.5	12
15	Sevilla	12	2	5	5	-3	-2.9	11
16	Villarreal	11	3	2	6	-4	+2.4	11
17	Granada	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.0	10
18	Celta	12	2	4	6	-7	+4.1	10
19	Vallecano	10	1	5	4	-9	-2.7	8
20	Almeria	11	0	5	6	-11	+1.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	9	2	1	+14	+4.9	29
2	Girona	11	8	3	0	+11	+3.6	27
3	Barcelona	10	5	5	0	+6	+13.6	20
4	Sociedad	11	4	4	3	+4	+1.2	16
5	Ath Bilbao	11	4	4	3	+2	+1.2	16
6	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.7	16
7	Ath Madrid	10	4	1	5	+5	+0.3	13
8	Las Palmas	11	4	1	6	-2	-9.0	13
9	Betis	11	2	6	3	-6	-8.7	12
10	Valencia	12	3	3	6	-7	-5.5	12
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.2	12
12	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	-5	-4.5	11
13	Alaves	12	2	4	6	-5	-3.9	10
14	Getafe	11	1	5	5	-5	-4.0	8
15	Celta	10	1	4	5	-4	-7.1	7
16	Mallorca	12	1	4	7	-11	-5.4	7
17	Sevilla	10	1	3	6	-6	-6.8	6
18	Cadiz	11	0	4	7	-12	-16.2	4
19	Granada	11	0	1	10	-16	-9.1	1
20	Almeria	11	0	1	10	-17	-10.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.