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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Rennes

S S S U S

2–1

Full-time

Montpellier

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rennes Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 27%

32%

21%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

53%

42%

Both score Ø 50%

63%

37%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,97 xG 1,27

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rennes 9. · Montpellier 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	14	5	1	+31	+18.5	47
2	Nice	19	11	5	3	+9	+9.9	38
3	Brest	19	10	5	4	+12	+5.3	35
4	Monaco	19	10	4	5	+9	+3.8	34
5	Lille	19	8	8	3	+10	+8.6	32
6	Reims	19	9	3	7	+1	+3.2	30
7	Marseille	19	7	8	4	+7	+15.6	29
8	Lens	19	8	5	6	+4	+0.8	29
9	Rennes	19	6	7	6	+4	+7.3	25
10	Strasbourg	20	6	7	7	-5	-2.5	25
11	Le Havre	19	5	8	6	-1	-6.2	23
12	Montpellier	19	4	8	7	-4	+0.3	20
13	Nantes	19	5	4	10	-10	-7.4	19
14	Toulouse	19	3	8	8	-9	-9.5	17
15	Metz	19	4	4	11	-13	-14.7	16
16	Lyon	19	4	4	11	-14	-6.3	16
17	Clermont	19	3	6	10	-14	-13.1	15
18	Lorient	19	2	7	10	-17	-13.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	10	7	3	0	+10	+8.3	24
2	Paris SG	10	7	2	1	+17	+11.6	23
3	Marseille	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.4	22
4	Lille	9	6	2	1	+10	+9.6	20
5	Brest	9	5	3	1	+10	+9.7	18
6	Monaco	9	6	0	3	+8	+4.3	18
7	Lens	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.3	17
8	Reims	9	5	1	3	+1	+4.2	16
9	Rennes	10	4	3	3	+6	+7.7	15
10	Strasbourg	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.9	15
11	Le Havre	9	4	2	3	+3	+3.6	14
12	Nantes	10	3	3	4	+0	-0.7	12
13	Montpellier	10	1	7	2	-1	+4.5	10
14	Lorient	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.1	10
15	Lyon	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.1	9
16	Toulouse	9	1	5	3	-1	+0.5	8
17	Metz	9	1	3	5	-3	-1.8	6
18	Clermont	10	1	3	6	-9	-5.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+14	+6.9	24
2	Brest	10	5	2	3	+2	-4.3	17
3	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+1	-0.6	16
4	Reims	10	4	2	4	+0	-1.0	14
5	Nice	9	4	2	3	-1	+1.6	14
6	Lille	10	2	6	2	+0	-1.0	12
7	Lens	10	3	3	4	-2	-5.6	12
8	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.4	10
9	Montpellier	9	3	1	5	-3	-4.2	10
10	Strasbourg	10	2	4	4	-7	-5.4	10
11	Metz	10	3	1	6	-10	-12.9	10
12	Le Havre	10	1	6	3	-4	-9.8	9
13	Clermont	9	2	3	4	-5	-8.0	9
14	Toulouse	10	2	3	5	-8	-10.0	9
15	Marseille	9	1	4	4	-5	+3.2	7
16	Lyon	9	2	1	6	-8	-6.4	7
17	Nantes	9	2	1	6	-10	-6.7	7
18	Lorient	9	0	3	6	-14	-8.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.