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Championship

Referee: S Allison

Bristol City

U S S T T

0–1

Full-time

Cardiff

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 37%

35%

38%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 49%

53%

44%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,70 xG 0,33

59% Possession 41%

17 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 12. · Cardiff 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	34	25	3	6	+41	+28.3	78
2	Ipswich	34	21	9	4	+23	+20.2	72
3	Leeds	32	20	6	6	+35	+28.2	66
4	Southampton	32	18	7	7	+20	+22.1	61
5	West Brom	33	17	8	8	+21	+8.2	59
6	Hull	34	16	7	11	+7	+6.4	55
7	Norwich	32	15	7	10	+10	-2.2	52
8	Preston	34	15	7	12	-5	-11.9	52
9	Coventry	35	13	12	10	+10	+10.5	51
10	Sunderland	34	14	5	15	+7	+9.9	47
11	Watford	34	11	11	12	+3	+1.6	44
12	Bristol City	34	12	8	14	+0	-0.7	44
13	Middlesbrough	33	13	5	15	-2	+11.4	44
14	Cardiff	34	13	5	16	-9	-18.6	44
15	Plymouth	34	10	10	14	-4	-16.3	40
16	Blackburn	34	11	6	17	-12	-5.2	39
17	Swansea	34	10	9	15	-12	-10.6	39
18	Birmingham	33	10	8	15	-13	-6.2	38
19	Huddersfield	34	8	13	13	-15	-11.3	37
20	Millwall	34	9	9	16	-14	-10.9	36
21	QPR	34	9	8	17	-13	-9.6	35
22	Stoke	34	9	8	17	-17	-3.3	35
23	Sheffield Weds	34	9	5	20	-25	-7.1	32
24	Rotherham	34	3	10	21	-36	-32.9	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	16	12	4	0	+25	+19.9	40
2	Leicester	17	13	1	3	+23	+15.4	40
3	Ipswich	17	12	4	1	+17	+17.8	40
4	West Brom	17	12	3	2	+17	+9.3	39
5	Norwich	16	11	2	3	+14	+6.8	35
6	Southampton	16	10	2	4	+18	+15.7	32
7	Sunderland	17	10	0	7	+8	+8.2	30
8	Preston	17	9	3	5	-2	-5.3	30
9	Coventry	17	7	8	2	+7	+6.4	29
10	Plymouth	17	8	4	5	+8	-5.9	28
11	Birmingham	16	7	6	3	+5	+1.2	27
12	Hull	17	7	5	5	+7	+7.3	26
13	Bristol City	17	7	3	7	+2	+0.9	24
14	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	-1	-8.6	24
15	Sheffield Weds	17	6	4	7	-2	+1.6	22
16	Huddersfield	17	5	6	6	-2	-2.4	21
17	Middlesbrough	17	6	3	8	-3	+7.9	21
18	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	-4	+2.8	21
19	Watford	17	5	5	7	+4	+8.7	20
20	Stoke	17	5	4	8	-9	+0.1	19
21	QPR	17	4	5	8	-6	-2.2	17
22	Swansea	17	4	5	8	-7	-1.8	17
23	Millwall	17	4	4	9	-13	-3.7	16
24	Rotherham	17	3	6	8	-6	-8.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	17	12	2	3	+18	+12.9	38
2	Ipswich	17	9	5	3	+6	+2.4	32
3	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+2	+6.4	29
4	Hull	17	9	2	6	+0	-0.8	29
5	Leeds	16	8	2	6	+10	+8.3	26
6	Watford	17	6	6	5	-1	-7.1	24
7	Middlesbrough	16	7	2	7	+1	+3.5	23
8	Coventry	18	6	4	8	+3	+4.1	22
9	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	-6.6	22
10	Swansea	17	6	4	7	-5	-8.8	22
11	West Brom	16	5	5	6	+4	-1.1	20
12	Millwall	17	5	5	7	-1	-7.2	20
13	Bristol City	17	5	5	7	-2	-1.6	20
14	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	-8	-10.0	20
15	QPR	17	5	3	9	-7	-7.4	18
16	Blackburn	17	5	3	9	-8	-8.1	18
17	Sunderland	17	4	5	8	-1	+1.7	17
18	Norwich	16	4	5	7	-4	-9.0	17
19	Stoke	17	4	4	9	-8	-3.4	16
20	Huddersfield	17	3	7	7	-13	-8.9	16
21	Plymouth	17	2	6	9	-12	-10.4	12
22	Birmingham	17	3	2	12	-18	-7.4	11
23	Sheffield Weds	17	3	1	13	-23	-8.6	10
24	Rotherham	17	0	4	13	-30	-24.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.