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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Newcastle

T T U T U

3–3

Full-time

Brentford

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 14%

27%

Points per game

0,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

55%

45%

Both score Ø 69%

82%

55%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

52% Possession 48%

23 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 19. · Brentford 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	9	2	1	+26	29
2	Man City	11	7	2	2	+16	23
3	West Ham	11	7	2	2	+10	23
4	Liverpool	11	6	4	1	+20	22
5	Arsenal	11	6	2	3	+0	20
6	Man United	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Brighton	11	4	5	2	+0	17
8	Wolves	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Tottenham	11	5	1	5	-7	16
10	Crystal Palace	11	3	6	2	+1	15
11	Everton	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Leicester	12	4	3	5	-5	15
13	Southampton	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Brentford	11	3	3	5	-1	12
15	Leeds	11	2	5	4	-7	11
16	Aston Villa	11	3	1	7	-6	10
17	Watford	11	3	1	7	-7	10
18	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-6	8
19	Newcastle	11	0	5	6	-12	5
20	Norwich	11	1	2	8	-21	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+14	13
2	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
4	Crystal Palace	6	2	4	0	+5	10
5	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Everton	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	+5	9
8	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	-3	9
10	Brighton	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Leicester	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Wolves	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Leeds	6	1	3	2	-3	6
16	Burnley	5	1	2	2	+0	5
17	Brentford	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Watford	5	1	1	3	-7	4
19	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+15	13
3	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Man United	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Wolves	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	9
8	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Leicester	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-4	7
12	Watford	6	2	0	4	+0	6
13	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Norwich	6	1	1	4	-14	4
18	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.