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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Fiorentina

T S T S T

4–3

Full-time

Milan

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 7

6 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+20	32
2	Milan	12	10	2	0	+15	32
3	Inter	12	7	4	1	+16	25
4	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+10	25
5	Lazio	13	6	3	4	+4	21
6	Juventus	13	6	3	4	+3	21
7	Roma	12	6	1	5	+6	19
8	Fiorentina	12	6	0	6	+2	18
9	Bologna	12	5	3	4	-4	18
10	Verona	12	4	4	4	+4	16
11	Empoli	12	5	1	6	-5	16
12	Torino	12	4	2	6	+3	14
13	Sassuolo	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Udinese	12	3	5	4	-3	14
15	Venezia	12	3	3	6	-8	12
16	Spezia	13	3	2	8	-16	11
17	Genoa	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Sampdoria	12	2	3	7	-10	9
19	Salernitana	12	2	1	9	-16	7
20	Cagliari	12	1	3	8	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	7	5	1	1	+10	16
2	Milan	6	5	1	0	+9	16
3	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+9	16
4	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Roma	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Verona	6	4	0	2	+6	12
7	Inter	5	3	2	0	+11	11
8	Torino	6	3	1	2	+6	10
9	Juventus	6	3	1	2	+1	10
10	Fiorentina	5	3	0	2	+4	9
11	Atalanta	7	2	3	2	+2	9
12	Udinese	7	2	3	2	-1	9
13	Venezia	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	+0	7
15	Spezia	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Cagliari	7	1	2	4	-3	5
17	Sampdoria	7	1	2	4	-7	5
18	Salernitana	6	1	1	4	-7	4
19	Empoli	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Atalanta	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Milan	6	5	1	0	+6	16
4	Inter	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Empoli	5	4	0	1	+4	12
6	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Fiorentina	7	3	0	4	-2	9
8	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Roma	6	2	0	4	+1	6
10	Genoa	7	1	3	3	-5	6
11	Udinese	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-6	5
13	Venezia	7	1	2	4	-8	5
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-9	5
15	Verona	6	0	4	2	-2	4
16	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Torino	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Spezia	7	1	1	5	-15	4
19	Salernitana	6	1	0	5	-9	3
20	Cagliari	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.