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Championship
Referee: S Barrott
Cardiff
T T S S T
2–0
Full-time
Swansea
T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Swansea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
100%
83%
Average goals
3,7
3,5
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
1,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 10%
20%
0%
Points per game
0,8
0,4
Over 2.5 Ø 80%
100%
60%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,6
3,0
Scored
1,6
1,2
Conceded
2,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,53 xG 0,60
49% Possession 51%
13 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 2
2 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cardiff 20. · Swansea 22.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Preston 6 5 1 0 +6 -0.6 16
2 Leicester 6 5 0 1 +6 +3.9 15
3 Ipswich 6 5 0 1 +5 +3.4 15
4 Norwich 6 4 1 1 +7 +4.2 13
5 Hull 6 3 2 1 +3 -2.3 11
6 Birmingham 6 3 2 1 +2 +3.7 11
7 Sunderland 6 3 1 2 +6 +4.7 10
8 Blackburn 6 3 1 2 -1 +1.1 10
9 Southampton 6 3 1 2 -5 -0.6 10
10 Bristol City 6 2 3 1 +0 +3.2 9
11 Watford 6 2 2 2 +4 +2.2 8
12 West Brom 6 2 2 2 +1 -4.0 8
13 Plymouth 6 2 1 3 +2 -2.2 7
14 Coventry 6 1 4 1 +2 +0.6 7
15 Millwall 5 2 1 2 -1 -3.2 7
16 Huddersfield 6 2 1 3 -4 -1.5 7
17 Leeds 5 1 3 1 +0 -0.1 6
18 Stoke 6 2 0 4 -2 +1.2 6
19 QPR 6 2 0 4 -5 -5.6 6
20 Cardiff 5 1 1 3 -2 +1.0 4
21 Rotherham 6 1 1 4 -6 -7.2 4
22 Swansea 5 0 2 3 -3 +0.1 2
23 Sheffield Weds 6 0 1 5 -6 -4.9 1
24 Middlesbrough 6 0 1 5 -9 +2.8 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cardiff Swansea
Half-time 0–0
57′
🟨 Jay Fulton
63′
🔁 J. Paterson
↦ J. Lowe
63′
🔁 J. Ginnelly
↦ J. Yates
O. Tanner 🔁
↦ I. Ugbo
70′
1–0 O. Tanner
J. Collins
71′
Ollie Tanner 🟨
81′
K. Etete 🔁
↦ Y. Meïté
81′
82′
🔁 L. Cullen
↦ C. Patino
2–0 A. Ramsey
86′
C. Robinson 🔁
↦ A. Ramsey
91′
93′
🔁 O. Cooper
↦ J. Fulton
93′
🔁 M. Kukharevych
↦ K. Pedersen
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-2-3-1
21 J. Alnwick G
38 P. Ng D
4 D. Goutas D
5 M. McGuinness D
17 J. Collins D
23 M. Siopis M
6 R. Wintle M
22 Y. Meïté M
10 A. Ramsey M
16 K. Ahearne-Grant M
12 I. Ugbo F
Bench (9)
32 O. Tanner
9 K. Etete
47 C. Robinson
24 J. Panzo
18 E. Adams
8 J. Ralls
13 R. Rúnarsson
27 R. Colwill
35 A. Rinomhota

Coach: E. Bulut

Swansea

3-1-4-2
22 C. Rushworth G
6 H. Darling D
23 N. Wood-Gordon D
3 K. Pedersen D
8 M. Grimes M
2 J. Key M
4 J. Fulton M
18 C. Patino M
14 J. Tymon M
10 J. Lowe F
9 J. Yates F
Bench (9)
12 J. Paterson
11 J. Ginnelly
20 L. Cullen
31 O. Cooper
19 M. Kukharevych
1 A. Fisher
5 B. Cabango
30 H. Ashby
33 B. Humphreys

Coach: M. Duff

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,54
U
3,34
B
2,76
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,93
U2,5 ✓
1,87
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Barrott · 114 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.