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Championship

Referee: R Jones

Sunderland

T U S U S

2–2

Full-time

Watford

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sunderland Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 28/30 matches

Win Ø 49%

57%

40%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

46%

63%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,97 xG 1,54

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 20

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sunderland 3. · Watford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	31	19	9	3	+43	+39.5	66
2	Burnley	31	16	13	2	+28	+7.7	61
3	Sunderland	28	16	9	3	+20	+9.6	57
4	Sheffield United	28	17	6	5	+18	+12.6	57
5	Blackburn	31	13	6	12	+4	-0.2	45
6	West Brom	30	10	14	6	+12	+6.6	44
7	Middlesbrough	30	12	8	10	+10	+14.5	44
8	Norwich	30	11	9	10	+7	+8.1	42
9	Bristol City	29	10	12	7	+4	+4.7	42
10	Sheffield Weds	30	11	9	10	-3	-3.1	42
11	Watford	30	12	5	13	-2	-8.0	41
12	QPR	31	10	11	10	-5	-4.5	41
13	Millwall	30	10	10	10	+3	+5.6	40
14	Coventry	30	11	7	12	+1	+15.9	40
15	Preston	30	8	13	9	-5	-0.8	37
16	Oxford	31	9	10	12	-11	-14.3	37
17	Swansea	30	9	7	14	-10	-2.9	34
18	Stoke	30	7	11	12	-9	-15.9	32
19	Cardiff	30	7	10	13	-18	-14.4	31
20	Portsmouth	30	7	9	14	-16	-14.5	30
21	Hull	30	7	8	15	-9	-4.2	29
22	Derby	30	7	6	17	-9	-6.7	27
23	Luton	30	7	6	17	-19	-5.8	27
24	Plymouth	30	5	10	15	-34	-29.5	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	16	13	2	1	+35	+26.1	41
2	Sunderland	13	9	4	0	+14	+6.7	31
3	Burnley	15	7	8	0	+12	+4.2	29
4	Sheffield United	13	9	2	2	+10	+12.4	29
5	Blackburn	16	9	2	5	+8	+4.0	29
6	Watford	15	9	2	4	+7	-1.7	29
7	Oxford	16	8	5	3	+4	-2.2	29
8	Norwich	14	7	5	2	+17	+11.5	26
9	Bristol City	13	7	5	1	+11	+7.4	26
10	Middlesbrough	16	7	5	4	+6	+6.9	26
11	West Brom	14	6	7	1	+11	+6.0	25
12	Preston	15	6	7	2	+5	+3.7	25
13	Coventry	15	7	3	5	+6	+10.0	24
14	Millwall	16	7	3	6	+4	+6.6	24
15	Portsmouth	15	6	5	4	+8	+2.2	23
16	QPR	16	6	5	5	+0	+3.1	23
17	Sheffield Weds	16	5	7	4	+2	+3.5	22
18	Luton	15	6	4	5	+1	+4.1	22
19	Plymouth	15	5	6	4	-2	-6.7	21
20	Derby	15	6	2	7	+4	+2.4	20
21	Swansea	15	5	5	5	+3	+6.7	20
22	Cardiff	15	6	2	7	-1	-2.6	20
23	Stoke	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.5	19
24	Hull	16	2	6	8	-6	+1.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	16	9	5	2	+16	+3.5	32
2	Sheffield United	15	8	4	3	+8	+0.2	28
3	Sunderland	15	7	5	3	+6	+2.9	26
4	Leeds	15	6	7	2	+8	+13.4	25
5	Sheffield Weds	14	6	2	6	-5	-6.6	20
6	West Brom	16	4	7	5	+1	+0.6	19
7	Middlesbrough	14	5	3	6	+4	+7.7	18
8	QPR	15	4	6	5	-5	-7.6	18
9	Hull	14	5	2	7	-3	-6.0	17
10	Millwall	14	3	7	4	-1	-0.9	16
11	Blackburn	15	4	4	7	-4	-4.2	16
12	Coventry	15	4	4	7	-5	+5.9	16
13	Bristol City	16	3	7	6	-7	-2.8	16
14	Norwich	16	4	4	8	-10	-3.4	16
15	Swansea	15	4	2	9	-13	-9.6	14
16	Stoke	15	3	4	8	-10	-11.4	13
17	Watford	15	3	3	9	-9	-6.3	12
18	Preston	15	2	6	7	-10	-4.5	12
19	Cardiff	15	1	8	6	-17	-11.8	11
20	Oxford	15	1	5	9	-15	-12.1	8
21	Derby	15	1	4	10	-13	-9.0	7
22	Portsmouth	15	1	4	10	-24	-16.7	7
23	Luton	15	1	2	12	-20	-9.9	5
24	Plymouth	15	0	4	11	-32	-22.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.