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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Pires Costa

Benfica

S T T S S

3–2

Full-time

Moreirense

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,7

1,8

Scored

2,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 50%

70%

30%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

60%

55%

Both score Ø 53%

45%

60%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,63 xG 1,12

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

14 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Moreirense 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	21	16	3	2	+41	+33.8	51
2	Benfica	20	14	2	4	+30	+24.0	44
3	Porto	21	13	4	4	+27	+21.6	43
4	Sp Braga	20	12	4	4	+16	+15.0	40
5	Santa Clara	21	12	2	7	+3	+8.9	38
6	Casa Pia	20	8	6	6	+1	-5.2	30
7	Guimaraes	20	7	8	5	+5	+6.5	29
8	Estoril	20	7	6	7	-7	-15.0	27
9	Famalicao	20	5	9	6	-2	-6.6	24
10	Rio Ave	20	6	6	8	-12	-15.9	24
11	Moreirense	20	6	5	9	-5	+0.5	23
12	Gil Vicente	20	5	7	8	-7	-6.7	22
13	Arouca	20	6	4	10	-13	-9.9	22
14	Nacional	20	5	4	11	-11	-4.0	19
15	AVS	21	3	9	9	-15	-9.7	18
16	Estrela	20	4	5	11	-15	-12.2	17
17	Farense	20	3	6	11	-15	-15.4	15
18	Boavista	20	2	6	12	-21	-9.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	11	9	2	0	+23	+22.2	29
2	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
3	Sp Lisbon	10	9	0	1	+18	+14.2	27
4	Santa Clara	11	7	1	3	+2	+11.1	22
5	Guimaraes	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
6	Rio Ave	10	4	5	1	+1	-1.8	17
7	Gil Vicente	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.4	16
8	Casa Pia	10	4	4	2	+4	+0.5	16
9	Moreirense	10	4	4	2	+1	-1.7	16
10	Nacional	10	5	1	4	-2	-2.0	16
11	Sp Braga	10	4	3	3	+6	+11.7	15
12	Estoril	10	4	3	3	-2	-6.1	15
13	Estrela	11	4	2	5	-3	-5.1	14
14	AVS	11	3	4	4	-5	-6.2	13
15	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-2	-0.3	11
16	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	-6.7	11
17	Farense	9	2	1	6	-8	-4.5	7
18	Boavista	10	0	3	7	-13	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+10	+3.3	25
2	Sp Lisbon	11	7	3	1	+23	+19.5	24
3	Benfica	10	5	2	3	+4	+6.6	17
4	Santa Clara	10	5	1	4	+1	-2.2	16
5	Porto	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.7	14
6	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	-3	-5.8	14
7	Famalicao	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.3	13
8	Estoril	10	3	3	4	-5	-8.9	12
9	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	-3.2	11
10	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-1	+1.6	10
11	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-8	-5.8	9
12	Farense	11	1	5	5	-7	-10.9	8
13	Moreirense	10	2	1	7	-6	+2.2	7
14	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-13	-14.0	7
15	Gil Vicente	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.1	6
16	AVS	10	0	5	5	-10	-3.5	5
17	Nacional	10	0	3	7	-9	-2.0	3
18	Estrela	9	0	3	6	-12	-7.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.