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Championship

Referee: Lewis Smith

Norwich

T U T T U

3–1

Full-time

QPR

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich QPR

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

12%

41%

Points per game

0,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 68%

71%

65%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,31 xG 1,02

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 6

2 Offside 4

4 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 23. · QPR 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	17	12	4	1	+30	+17.5	40
2	Stoke	18	9	3	6	+12	-0.4	30
3	Bristol City	18	8	5	5	+6	+1.5	29
4	Middlesbrough	16	8	5	3	+4	+2.7	29
5	Hull	18	8	4	6	+0	-11.1	28
6	Millwall	17	8	4	5	-4	+3.1	28
7	Ipswich	17	7	6	4	+11	+15.5	27
8	Preston	17	7	6	4	+5	-0.8	27
9	Derby	17	7	5	5	+1	-6.0	26
10	Birmingham	17	7	4	6	+6	+11.8	25
11	Wrexham	17	6	7	4	+3	-5.5	25
12	QPR	17	7	4	6	-4	+2.0	25
13	Watford	17	6	6	5	+2	+4.0	24
14	Leicester	18	6	6	6	-1	-3.4	24
15	Southampton	16	6	5	5	+4	+9.1	23
16	Charlton	17	6	5	6	-3	-6.6	23
17	West Brom	17	6	4	7	-3	-0.6	22
18	Blackburn	16	6	1	9	-5	+4.2	19
19	Sheffield United	18	6	1	11	-8	+3.8	19
20	Oxford	18	4	6	8	-5	-5.2	18
21	Swansea	17	4	5	8	-8	-7.6	17
22	Portsmouth	18	4	5	9	-10	-6.8	17
23	Norwich	17	2	4	11	-12	-7.6	10
24	Sheffield Weds	17	1	5	11	-21	-13.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	8	6	2	0	+16	+7.2	20
2	Watford	9	5	3	1	+6	+4.4	18
3	Birmingham	8	5	2	1	+12	+11.7	17
4	Preston	9	5	2	2	+4	-0.2	17
5	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+3	-0.6	17
6	Hull	9	5	2	2	+1	-3.8	17
7	Stoke	9	5	1	3	+8	+2.5	16
8	Ipswich	9	4	4	1	+6	+12.1	16
9	Millwall	9	5	1	3	-1	+3.5	16
10	Wrexham	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.7	15
11	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+4	-0.2	14
12	Charlton	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.8	14
13	West Brom	8	3	4	1	+2	+2.9	13
14	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.9	13
15	Derby	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
16	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+3	+7.0	11
17	QPR	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
18	Portsmouth	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.7	11
19	Oxford	9	2	4	3	-3	+0.1	10
20	Swansea	9	2	3	4	-5	-2.8	9
21	Sheffield United	8	2	1	5	-4	+3.6	7
22	Blackburn	8	1	1	6	-7	+0.7	4
23	Sheffield Weds	9	0	2	7	-18	-8.8	2
24	Norwich	8	0	1	7	-8	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	6	2	1	+14	+10.3	20
2	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.7	15
3	Blackburn	8	5	0	3	+2	+3.4	15
4	Stoke	9	4	2	3	+4	-2.9	14
5	Derby	8	4	2	2	+2	-4.9	14
6	QPR	9	4	2	3	-3	-3.0	14
7	Southampton	9	3	3	3	+1	+2.1	12
8	Middlesbrough	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.2	12
9	Millwall	8	3	3	2	-3	-0.4	12
10	Sheffield United	10	4	0	6	-4	+0.2	12
11	Ipswich	8	3	2	3	+5	+3.5	11
12	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
13	Leicester	9	3	2	4	-2	-6.3	11
14	Preston	8	2	4	2	+1	-0.6	10
15	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	+1	-7.2	10
16	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-6.9	9
17	Charlton	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.8	9
18	West Brom	9	3	0	6	-5	-3.6	9
19	Oxford	9	2	2	5	-2	-5.3	8
20	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	-4.7	8
21	Birmingham	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.2	8
22	Sheffield Weds	8	1	3	4	-3	-4.8	6
23	Watford	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.4	6
24	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.