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Championship

Referee: Gavin Ward

Derby

S S S S S

2–3

Full-time

Watford

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 37%

40%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

40%

53%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,62 xG 1,47

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 9. · Watford 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	16	11	4	1	+28	+17.2	37
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+6	+2.5	28
3	Stoke	15	8	3	4	+11	-0.4	27
4	Bristol City	16	7	5	4	+7	+1.5	26
5	Preston	16	7	5	4	+5	-0.0	26
6	Hull	15	7	4	4	+2	-7.8	25
7	Millwall	15	7	4	4	-3	+2.5	25
8	Ipswich	14	6	5	3	+10	+11.6	23
9	Derby	15	6	5	4	+1	-5.6	23
10	Charlton	16	6	5	5	+0	-6.0	23
11	Birmingham	15	6	3	6	+3	+9.4	21
12	Leicester	15	5	6	4	+2	-1.5	21
13	Wrexham	15	5	6	4	+1	-3.9	21
14	West Brom	16	6	3	7	-3	-0.5	21
15	Southampton	15	5	5	5	+1	+7.1	20
16	Watford	15	5	5	5	+1	+2.4	20
17	Blackburn	15	6	1	8	-4	+4.2	19
18	QPR	15	5	4	6	-6	+0.0	19
19	Swansea	16	4	5	7	-7	-7.2	17
20	Portsmouth	15	3	5	7	-8	-5.6	14
21	Oxford	15	3	4	8	-6	-3.7	13
22	Sheffield United	15	3	1	11	-15	-0.4	10
23	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-9	-5.9	9
24	Sheffield Weds	15	1	5	9	-17	-9.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	8	6	2	0	+16	+7.2	20
2	Watford	8	5	2	1	+6	+3.7	17
3	Middlesbrough	7	5	2	0	+5	-0.2	17
4	Preston	9	5	2	2	+4	-0.2	17
5	Hull	8	5	2	1	+3	-2.0	17
6	Ipswich	8	4	3	1	+6	+10.4	15
7	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+9	+9.4	14
8	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+4	-0.2	14
9	Charlton	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.8	14
10	Stoke	7	4	1	2	+6	+2.4	13
11	Millwall	8	4	1	3	-2	+1.8	13
12	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.1	12
13	Wrexham	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.6	12
14	Derby	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.3	12
15	Leicester	7	2	4	1	+1	+2.8	10
16	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.4	9
17	Southampton	6	2	2	2	+0	+5.0	8
18	QPR	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.1	8
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-3	-0.3	8
20	Oxford	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.1	6
21	Blackburn	7	1	1	5	-6	+0.8	4
22	Sheffield United	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.4	4
23	Sheffield Weds	8	0	2	6	-15	-6.8	2
24	Norwich	7	0	0	7	-8	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	8	5	2	1	+12	+9.9	17
2	Blackburn	8	5	0	3	+2	+3.4	15
3	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+5	-2.8	14
4	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+3	+1.6	12
5	Southampton	9	3	3	3	+1	+2.1	12
6	Millwall	7	3	3	1	-1	+0.8	12
7	Leicester	8	3	2	3	+1	-4.3	11
8	Derby	7	3	2	2	+1	-5.3	11
9	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+1	+2.7	11
10	QPR	8	3	2	3	-4	-3.0	11
11	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	+1	-5.5	9
12	Preston	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.2	9
13	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.6	9
14	Charlton	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.2	9
15	West Brom	9	3	0	6	-5	-3.6	9
16	Ipswich	6	2	2	2	+4	+1.2	8
17	Hull	7	2	2	3	-1	-5.8	8
18	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	-4.7	8
19	Oxford	8	2	1	5	-2	-4.7	7
20	Birmingham	8	2	1	5	-6	+0.0	7
21	Sheffield Weds	7	1	3	3	-2	-3.1	6
22	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-5	-5.3	6
23	Sheffield United	8	2	0	6	-8	-1.8	6
24	Watford	7	0	3	4	-5	-1.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.