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DFB-Pokal

Referee: F Brych

Freiburg

S S U S T

2–1

Full-time

St Pauli

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

7,0

Scored

2,0

4,0

Conceded

1,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

23 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 22. · St Pauli 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+12	6
2	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Mainz	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Darmstadt	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Nurnberg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+10	3
10	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+8	3
11	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+7	3
12	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+6	3
13	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Sandhausen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Stuttgarter Kickers	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	VfB Lubeck	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Regensburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Braunschweig	2	0	1	1	-1	1
35	Waldhof Mannheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
36	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Chemnitzer FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
56	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
59	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
61	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
62	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
63	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
64	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Stuttgarter Kickers	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	VfB Lubeck	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Regensburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Braunschweig	2	0	1	1	-1	1
9	Waldhof Mannheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
10	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Chemnitzer FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
21	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
22	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
23	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
24	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-3	0
25	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-3	0
26	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
27	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
28	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
29	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
30	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-5	0
31	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
32	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
33	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
34	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
35	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Mainz	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Nurnberg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+10	3
7	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+8	3
9	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+7	3
10	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+6	3
11	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Sandhausen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.