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Taça de Portugal

Referee: João Almeida

Dumiense

S S

2–1

Full-time

Real

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dumiense Real

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

Scored

4,5

3,0

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+4,0

+1,0

This season — Taça de Portugal · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

Scored

4,5

3,0

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+4,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Dumiense 5. · Real 49. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sanjoanense	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	FC Serpa	3	2	0	1	+8	6
5	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+8	6
6	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Fontinhas	3	2	0	1	+5	6
11	Academico Viseu	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
14	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+4	6
16	Sertanense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
17	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
18	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
19	Mafra	2	2	0	0	+3	6
20	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
21	Canelas 2010	3	2	0	1	+2	6
22	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
24	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
25	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
26	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
27	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
28	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+2	4
29	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
31	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Camacha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
33	Oriental Lisboa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
34	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
35	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
36	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
37	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
38	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
39	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
40	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
45	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
64	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
67	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
68	Imortal Albufeira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
70	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
131	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
132	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
133	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
134	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
135	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
136	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
137	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
138	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
139	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
140	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
141	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
143	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
13	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
14	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Canelas 2010	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
72	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
75	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
76	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
77	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
78	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
9	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
18	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
41	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
42	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
91	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
92	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
93	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dumiense Real

12′

⚽ Danilson Tavares 0–1

25′

🟥

29′

🔁 Iuri Miguel

↦ Gonçalo Agrelos

Pedro Fernandes 🔁

↦ João Paulo

40′

Half-time 0–1

53′

🟨

Totas 🔁

↦ Jonas

64′

69′

🔁 Rafa Santos

↦ Pedro Soares

69′

🔁 Dino

↦ João Guilherme

1–1 João Victor ⚽

71′

2–1 Totas ⚽

79′

🟨

81′

84′

🔁 Adilson Silva

↦ Rafa Santos

84′

🔁 Bernardo Silva

↦ Bruno Almeida

Gonçalo Pereira 🔁

↦ Rashid

88′

Rui Macedo 🔁

↦ Tulio

88′

Zé Diogo 🔁

↦ João Victor

88′

🟨

93′

95′

🟨

Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Dumiense

Rafa

João Paulo

Tiago Ferreira

A. Raymond

João Ferreira

F. Córdoba

Jonas

Rui Jorge

Tulio

João Victor

Rashid

Bench (9)

Pedro Fernandes

Totas

Gonçalo Pereira

Rui Macedo

Zé Diogo

Pedro Costa

Romeu Ribeiro

Rui Costa

Paulo Leiras

Coach: André Brito

Real

Márcio Rosa

Paulinho

Bruno Almeida

Pedro Rosas

João Guilherme

Miguel Montenegro

Danilson Tavares

Ballack

Marcos Barbeiro

Gonçalo Agrelos

Pedro Soares

Bench (9)

Iuri Miguel

Rafa Santos

Dino

Adilson Silva

Bernardo Silva

A. Ibrahim

Lourenço Teixeira

Pedro Farrim

Diogo Castro

Coach: Rui Santos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

2. Oct TP 3 years ago

11. Sep TP 4 years ago

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Dumiense

Real

Odds comparison

Recent matches