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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Bruno José Costa

Varzim

S S

1–0

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varzim Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pêro Pinheiro	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	São João Ver	3	3	0	0	+11	9
3	Beira-Mar	3	3	0	0	+10	9
4	Dumiense	3	3	0	0	+9	9
5	Valadares Gaia	3	3	0	0	+6	9
6	Sanjoanense	3	3	0	0	+6	9
7	Vilaverdense	3	3	0	0	+5	9
8	Camacha	3	2	1	0	+7	7
9	Oliveira Hospital	3	2	1	0	+2	7
10	FC Serpa	3	2	0	1	+8	6
11	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+8	6
12	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
13	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+5	6
14	Fontinhas	3	2	0	1	+5	6
15	Academico Viseu	2	2	0	0	+5	6
16	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
17	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
18	Montalegre	3	2	0	1	+4	6
19	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+4	6
20	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
21	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
22	Sertanense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
23	Mafra	2	2	0	0	+3	6
24	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
25	Rabo Peixe	2	2	0	0	+2	6
26	Canelas 2010	3	2	0	1	+2	6
27	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
28	Pevidem	2	2	0	0	+2	6
29	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
30	Tirsense	3	2	0	1	-1	6
31	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
32	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
33	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+2	4
34	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
35	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
36	Machico	2	1	1	0	+1	4
37	Oriental Lisboa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
38	Pombal	3	1	1	1	-2	4
39	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
40	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
41	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
42	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
43	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
45	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
46	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
47	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
48	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
50	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
68	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Imortal Albufeira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Courense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
72	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
73	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
81	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
138	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
139	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
140	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
141	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
142	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
143	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
144	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
145	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
147	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
148	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
149	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
150	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pêro Pinheiro	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Valadares Gaia	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Vilaverdense	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Oliveira Hospital	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
6	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
12	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Machico	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
16	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
17	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	+3	3
18	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Canelas 2010	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
47	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Vianense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Montalegre	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
76	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
79	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
80	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
82	Courense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
83	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Pevidem	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Camacha	2	1	1	0	+6	4
10	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
12	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
46	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
97	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
98	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
99	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
100	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
101	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
102	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Varzim Sp Lisbon

17′

🟨 Trincao

45′

🟨 S. Alexandropoulos

Half-time 0–0

46′

🔁 Pote

↦ S. Alexandropoulos

59′

🔁 I. Fatawu

↦ Pedro Porro

59′

🔁 M. Ugarte

↦ M. Edwards

Gustavo Souza 🔁

↦ O. Osemene

63′

Jorge Vilela 🔁

↦ Rúben Gonçalves

63′

Joaozinho 🟨

67′

1–0 João Faria ⚽

70′

76′

🔁 Rochinha

↦ H. Morita

82′

🟨 Rochinha

Ludovic 🔁

↦ Joãozinho

82′

84′

🔁 Jovane Cabral

↦ Nuno Santos

Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Varzim

Ricardo Nunes

João Faria

Tiago Cerveira

Bruno Sapo

Tito Júnior

J. Bonilla

Joãozinho

Paulo Moreira

Rúben Gonçalves

O. Osemene

Léo Teixeira

Bench (9)

Gustavo Souza

Jorge Vilela

Ludovic

Diogo Ramalho

Matheus Guarujá

Tiago Pereira

Latón

Iván García

Jose Augusto

Coach: Tiago Margarido

Sp Lisbon

F. Israel

Matheus Reis

Pedro Porro

José Martínez

Gonçalo Inácio

Nuno Santos

S. Alexandropoulos

H. Morita

Paulinho

M. Edwards

Trincão

Bench (9)

Pote

I. Fatawu

M. Ugarte

Rochinha

Jovane Cabral

Adán

Flávio Nazinho

Diogo Travassos

Renato Veiga

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5

–

🔒

U1,5 ✓

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

1. Oct TP 3 years ago

11. Sep TP 4 years ago

Referee

Bruno José Costa · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

4,9 / match

Below average

⚽ Free kicks

27,7 / match

Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Varzim

Sp Lisbon

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee