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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Vitoria Setubal

T T U S S

2–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sanjoanense	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	FC Serpa	3	2	0	1	+8	6
5	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+8	6
6	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Fontinhas	3	2	0	1	+5	6
11	Academico Viseu	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
14	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+4	6
16	Sertanense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
17	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
18	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
19	Mafra	2	2	0	0	+3	6
20	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
21	Canelas 2010	3	2	0	1	+2	6
22	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
24	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
25	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
26	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
27	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
28	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+2	4
29	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
31	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Camacha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
33	Oriental Lisboa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
34	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
35	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
36	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
37	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
38	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
39	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
40	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
45	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
64	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
67	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
68	Imortal Albufeira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
70	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
131	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
132	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
133	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
134	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
135	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
136	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
137	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
138	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
139	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
140	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
141	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
143	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
13	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
14	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Canelas 2010	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
72	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
75	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
76	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
77	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
78	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
9	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
18	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
41	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
42	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
91	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
92	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
93	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.