Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
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Who wins?
Pro
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
AR São Martinho
Machico
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/5 matches
Win Ø 20%
0%
40%
Points per game
0,5
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
50%
40%
Both score Ø 35%
50%
20%
Average goals
4,0
2,4
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
2,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,4
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Goal markets
Pro
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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Most likely result
Pro
The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Line-ups
AR São Martinho
Coach: Pedro Cunha
Machico
Coach: Élio Martins
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.