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Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Man United

T S T U U

3–2

Full-time

Burnley

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,63 xG 1,20

62% Possession 38%

26 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 16. · Burnley 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+6	+4.3	7
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.5	6
3	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
4	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.2	4
6	Man City	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.4	3
7	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.0	3
8	Everton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.2	3
9	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
10	Burnley	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.1	3
11	Brentford	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
12	Leeds	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.4	3
13	Crystal Palace	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
14	Fulham	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.9	2
15	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.5	1
16	Man United	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
17	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
18	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.5	1
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.7	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
2	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.7	3
3	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.4	3
4	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.2	3
5	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
6	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
7	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
8	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
9	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
10	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
11	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
12	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
13	Brighton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
14	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
15	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
16	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
17	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
18	Man City	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
19	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.0	0
20	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.9	3
3	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
6	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
7	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
8	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
9	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
11	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
12	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
13	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
14	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
15	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
16	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
17	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
18	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0
19	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.2	0
20	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.