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Allsvenskan

Referee: Richard Sundell

Goteborg

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Varnamo

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Goteborg Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

3,0

4,7

Scored

2,2

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 31%

52%

10%

Points per game

1,7

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 58%

48%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,96 xG 1,47

57% Possession 43%

27 Shots 17

9 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 0

8 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Goteborg 7. · Varnamo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	21	15	5	1	+25	+1.7	50
2	Hammarby	21	13	3	5	+17	+12.6	42
3	Malmo FF	21	10	7	4	+16	+12.4	37
4	AIK	21	10	7	4	+8	+6.5	37
5	Elfsborg	21	11	3	7	+8	+0.1	36
6	GAIS	21	9	8	4	+12	+10.5	35
7	Goteborg	21	11	2	8	+3	+0.1	35
8	Djurgarden	21	8	7	6	+4	+5.8	31
9	Hacken	21	7	5	9	-5	+5.5	26
10	Norrkoping	21	7	4	10	-6	-9.2	25
11	Brommapojkarna	21	7	2	12	-3	-2.2	23
12	Sirius	21	6	5	10	-3	-2.1	23
13	Halmstad	21	6	3	12	-24	-11.6	21
14	Oster	21	4	6	11	-10	-11.2	18
15	Degerfors	21	4	3	14	-23	-4.5	15
16	Varnamo	21	2	6	13	-19	-14.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	11	8	1	2	+12	+10.6	25
2	Mjallby	10	7	3	0	+12	+4.1	24
3	Elfsborg	11	6	2	3	+6	+0.4	20
4	AIK	9	5	4	0	+10	+4.6	19
5	Malmo FF	10	5	3	2	+8	+8.5	18
6	Djurgarden	11	4	5	2	+4	+6.1	17
7	Goteborg	10	5	1	4	+4	+1.9	16
8	GAIS	10	4	3	3	+3	+7.0	15
9	Norrkoping	11	4	1	6	-3	-0.0	13
10	Halmstad	11	4	1	6	-11	-4.7	13
11	Sirius	10	3	2	5	-1	+1.0	11
12	Hacken	11	3	2	6	-7	+4.9	11
13	Varnamo	12	2	4	6	-8	-7.6	10
14	Brommapojkarna	10	3	0	7	-5	-0.4	9
15	Oster	10	1	3	6	-7	-4.0	6
16	Degerfors	11	1	3	7	-13	-1.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	11	8	2	1	+13	-2.4	26
2	GAIS	11	5	5	1	+9	+3.5	20
3	Malmo FF	11	5	4	2	+8	+3.9	19
4	Goteborg	11	6	1	4	-1	-1.8	19
5	AIK	12	5	3	4	-2	+1.9	18
6	Hammarby	10	5	2	3	+5	+2.0	17
7	Elfsborg	10	5	1	4	+2	-0.4	16
8	Hacken	10	4	3	3	+2	+0.6	15
9	Brommapojkarna	11	4	2	5	+2	-1.8	14
10	Djurgarden	10	4	2	4	+0	-0.3	14
11	Sirius	11	3	3	5	-2	-3.1	12
12	Norrkoping	10	3	3	4	-3	-9.2	12
13	Oster	11	3	3	5	-3	-7.2	12
14	Degerfors	10	3	0	7	-10	-3.4	9
15	Halmstad	10	2	2	6	-13	-6.8	8
16	Varnamo	9	0	2	7	-11	-6.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.