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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Santa Clara

U U S U S

1–2

Full-time

Tondela

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Santa Clara Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,5

2,0

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,97 xG 0,71

53% Possession 47%

11 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 25

2 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Santa Clara 9. · Tondela 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+14	+9.2	18
2	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+9	+7.9	17
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	0	1	+14	+12.1	15
4	Moreirense	7	5	0	2	+2	-2.8	15
5	Gil Vicente	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.9	13
6	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.1	11
7	Sp Braga	6	2	3	1	+5	+3.4	9
8	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.6	8
9	Santa Clara	6	2	2	2	-2	+0.7	8
10	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-5	-6.0	8
11	Casa Pia	7	2	1	4	-5	-4.4	7
12	Estoril	6	1	2	3	-2	-4.5	5
13	Estrela	6	0	4	2	-3	-0.9	4
14	Rio Ave	6	0	4	2	-5	-4.6	4
15	Alverca	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.5	4
16	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.2	4
17	Tondela	6	0	2	4	-8	-2.4	2
18	AVS	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.1	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
3	Benfica	4	2	2	0	+4	+5.4	8
4	Sp Lisbon	3	2	0	1	+8	+6.5	6
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
6	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
7	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
8	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.4	4
9	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.9	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.1	4
11	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
12	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.0	3
13	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
14	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.6	1
16	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.2	1
17	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.4	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.9	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
4	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.0	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.5	7
6	Casa Pia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
7	Sp Braga	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.2	5
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.8	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
11	Estrela	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.3	3
12	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.3	3
13	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.9	3
14	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.3	2
15	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.5	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.7	1
17	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.