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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Man City

S S U S U

2–0

Full-time

Burnley

U T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

57%

Points per game

2,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 36%

14%

57%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

71% Possession 29%

15 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	5	3	0	+16	18
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+12	16
3	Man City	7	4	2	1	+11	14
4	Man United	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	Everton	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+3	14
7	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Tottenham	7	4	0	3	-4	12
9	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+4	11
10	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Arsenal	7	3	1	3	-5	10
12	Wolves	7	3	0	4	-1	9
13	Leicester	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Crystal Palace	7	1	4	2	-3	7
15	Watford	8	2	1	5	-8	7
16	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-7	6
17	Southampton	7	0	4	3	-5	4
18	Burnley	7	0	3	4	-6	3
19	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3
20	Norwich	7	0	1	6	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+7	9
2	Everton	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
4	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Man City	3	2	1	0	+10	7
6	Man United	4	2	1	1	+6	7
7	Aston Villa	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Crystal Palace	4	1	3	0	+3	6
10	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
12	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Watford	4	1	1	2	-6	4
16	Wolves	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+11	10
2	Brentford	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Man United	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Man City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Everton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Arsenal	4	1	1	2	-6	4
12	Watford	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Tottenham	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-4	2
17	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-6	1
20	Norwich	4	0	1	3	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.