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Super League
Referee: A Diamantopoulos
AEK
T U S S S
3–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Aris Thessalonikis
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,0
This season — Super League · 32/29 matches
Win Ø 58%
75%
41%
Points per game
2,3
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
47%
55%
Both score Ø 32%
25%
38%
Average goals
2,4
2,4
Scored
1,9
1,4
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

60% Possession 40%
18 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 0
1 Offside 3
19 Free kicks against 13
5 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AEK 1. · Aris Thessalonikis 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 AEK 32 24 3 5 +46 75
2 Panathinaikos 32 23 6 3 +30 75
3 Olympiakos 32 19 10 3 +44 67
4 PAOK 32 18 10 4 +28 64
5 Volos NFC 31 12 7 12 -12 43
6 Aris Thessalonikis 29 12 5 12 +12 41
7 Aris 30 12 5 13 +10 41
8 Atromitos 31 8 11 12 -3 35
9 OFI Crete 31 8 10 13 -10 34
10 Panetolikos 31 8 8 15 -15 32
11 Asteras Tripolis 31 5 13 13 -17 28
12 Ionikos 31 7 6 18 -26 27
13 Lamia 31 5 11 15 -35 26
14 Giannina 31 4 12 15 -26 24
15 Levadeiakos 31 4 11 16 -26 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AEK Aris Thessalonikis
Mijat Gaćinović 🟨
21′
24′
🟨 Oghenekaro Etebo
29′
🔁 N. Nkoulou
↦ J. Brabec
1–0 L. Garcia
36′
38′
🟨 Juan Iturbe
Half-time 1–1
46′
J. Iturbe 1–1
46′
🔁 C. Doukouré
↦ O. Etebo
59′
ℹ️ Rafael Camacho
VAR: Goal cancelled
S. Zuber 🔁
↦ S. Araújo
60′
O. Pineda 🔁
↦ M. Gaćinović
60′
Paolo Fernandes 🔁
↦ N. Eliasson
61′
61′
🔁 M. Odubajo
↦ J. Iturbe
Levi García ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
69′
P. Mantalos 🔁
↦ J. Jønsson
76′
81′
🔁 L. Christodoulopoulos
↦ S. MBakata
82′
🔁 B. Mazikou
↦ L. Palma
2–1 S. Zuber
82′
Paolo Fernandes 🟨
86′
Lazaros Rota 🟨
86′
86′
🟨 Bryan Dabo
86′
🟨 Rafael Camacho
Petros Mantalos 🟨
94′
Georgios Tzavellas 🟨
94′
94′
🟨 Lazaros Christodoulopoulos
3–1 S. Zuber
P. Mantalos
95′
M. Mohammadi 🔁
↦ L. Garcia
97′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

AEK

4-3-1-2
30 G. Athanasiadis G
12 L. Rota D
21 D. Vida D
31 G. Tzavellas D
28 E. Hajisafi D
19 N. Eliasson M
4 D. Szymański M
8 M. Gaćinović M
6 J. Jønsson M
7 L. Garcia F
11 S. Araújo F
Bench (9)
10 S. Zuber
13 O. Pineda
22 Paolo Fernandes
20 P. Mantalos
3 M. Mohammadi
24 G. Mitoglou
14 A. Fransson
25 K. Galanopoulos
1 C. Stanković

Coach: M. Almeyda

Aris Thessalonikis

23 Julián G
2 S. M'Bakata D
4 Fabiano D
14 J. Brabec D
43 M. Peersman D
6 B. Dabo M
13 O. Etebo M
11 J. Iturbe M
16 V. Darida M
17 L. Palma M
64 Rafael Camacho F
Bench (9)
3 N. Nkoulou
8 C. Doukouré
22 M. Odubajo
7 L. Christodoulopoulos
18 B. Mazikou
99 M. Siampanis
9 A. Gray
77 M. Panagidis
88 R. Sgouros

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Diamantopoulos · 73 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
30,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.