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Bundesliga

Referee: J Spurny

Salzburg

S S S S U

1–3

Full-time

Sturm Graz

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,0

Scored

3,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 7/6 matches

Win Ø 60%

86%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

71%

17%

Both score Ø 52%

71%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,0

Scored

3,6

1,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,9

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

17 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Salzburg 1. · Sturm Graz 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salzburg	7	6	1	0	+20	19
2	SK Rapid	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	LASK	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	St. Polten	7	3	1	3	+5	10
5	Sturm Graz	6	2	3	1	+4	9
6	Austria Vienna	7	2	2	3	-1	8
7	Tirol	7	2	2	3	-5	8
8	Wolfsberger AC	6	2	0	4	-3	6
9	Ried	7	2	0	5	-8	6
10	Hartberg	7	1	3	3	-9	6
11	Altach	7	1	2	4	-9	5
12	Admira	7	1	1	5	-14	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	LASK	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	SK Rapid	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Salzburg	3	3	0	0	+14	9
4	Ried	4	2	0	2	-1	6
5	Altach	4	1	2	1	+0	5
6	Sturm Graz	3	1	1	1	+2	4
7	St. Polten	4	1	1	2	+2	4
8	Austria Vienna	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Hartberg	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Admira	3	1	0	2	-5	3
11	Tirol	3	0	2	1	-2	2
12	Wolfsberger AC	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salzburg	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	SK Rapid	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	St. Polten	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Wolfsberger AC	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Tirol	4	2	0	2	-3	6
6	Sturm Graz	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Austria Vienna	4	1	1	2	+0	4
8	LASK	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Hartberg	4	0	2	2	-8	2
10	Admira	4	0	1	3	-9	1
11	Ried	3	0	0	3	-7	0
12	Altach	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.