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Bundesliga
Referee: F Brych
Dortmund
T T S S S
1–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
4,7
4,0
Scored
3,0
2,5
Conceded
1,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%
13 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 3
2 Offside 4
14 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Feb -22 Dortmund – Leverkusen 2–5 11. Sep -21 Leverkusen – Dortmund 3–4 22. May -21 Dortmund – Leverkusen 3–1 19. Jan -21 Leverkusen – Dortmund 2–1 8. Feb -20 Leverkusen – Dortmund 4–3

Match report

Dortmund Leverkusen
1–0 M. Reus ⚽
10′
13′
🔁 C. Aránguiz
↦ R. Andrich
T. Hazard 🔁
↦ K. Adeyemi
23′
27′
🟨 Jonathan Tah
37′
🟨 Exequiel Palacios
Thorgan Hazard 🟨
43′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 A. Hložek
↦ K. Bellarabi
56′
🟨 Piero Hincapié
66′
🔁 S. Azmoun
↦ K. Demirbay
J. Brandt 🔁
↦ Y. Moukoko
68′
Nico Schlotterbeck 🟨
72′
78′
🔁 M. Bakker
↦ P. Hincapié
79′
🔁 N. Amiri
↦ E. Palacios
E. Can 🔁
↦ D. Malen
84′
M. Wolf 🔁
↦ Raphaël Guerreiro
84′
92′
🟥 Lukáš Hrádecký
92′
ℹ️ Lukáš Hrádecký
VAR: Card upgrade
95′
🟨 Mitchel Bakker
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-3-3
1 G. Kobel G
24 T. Meunier D
15 M. Hummels D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
13 Raphaël Guerreiro D
8 M. Dahoud M
11 M. Reus M
22 J. Bellingham M
27 K. Adeyemi F
18 Y. Moukoko F
21 D. Malen F
Bench (9)
10 T. Hazard
19 J. Brandt
23 E. Can
17 M. Wolf
44 S. Coulibaly
32 A. Kamara
7 G. Reyna
30 F. Passlack
33 A. Meyer

Coach: E. Terzić

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
1 L. Hrádecký G
30 J. Frimpong D
4 J. Tah D
12 E. Tapsoba D
3 P. Hincapié D
8 R. Andrich M
25 E. Palacios M
38 K. Bellarabi M
10 K. Demirbay M
19 M. Diaby M
14 P. Schick F
Bench (9)
20 C. Aránguiz
23 A. Hložek
9 S. Azmoun
5 M. Bakker
11 N. Amiri
17 J. Pohjanpalo
40 A. Lunev
6 O. Kossounou
7 Paulinho

Coach: G. Seoane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,06
🔒
U
4,12
🔒
B
3,19
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
1,39
🔒
U2,5 ✓
3,01
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Brych · 113 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.