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Bundesliga
Referee: D Siebert
Leverkusen
U T U S S
3–4
Full-time
Dortmund
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
2,8
4,7
Scored
1,8
3,0
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,3
This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,7
5,0
Scored
3,0
3,0
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

42% Possession 58%
11 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 11
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Leverkusen 2. · Dortmund 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Wolfsburg 3 3 0 0 +3 9
2 Leverkusen 3 2 1 0 +7 7
3 Bayern Munich 3 2 1 0 +6 7
4 Freiburg 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Dortmund 3 2 0 1 +3 6
6 FC Koln 3 2 0 1 +2 6
7 Mainz 3 2 0 1 +2 6
8 Union Berlin 3 1 2 0 +1 5
9 Hoffenheim 3 1 1 1 +3 4
10 RB Leipzig 3 1 0 2 +2 3
11 Bochum 3 1 0 2 +0 3
12 Bielefeld 3 0 3 0 +0 3
13 Stuttgart 3 1 0 2 -1 3
14 Ein Frankfurt 3 0 2 1 -3 2
15 M'gladbach 3 0 1 2 -5 1
16 Greuther Furth 3 0 1 2 -7 1
17 Augsburg 3 0 1 2 -7 1
18 Hertha 3 0 0 3 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leverkusen Dortmund
1–0 F. Wirtz
Paulinho
9′
20′
🟨 Thomas Meunier
37′
E. Haaland 1–1
T. Meunier
Half-time 2–1
2–1 P. Schick
F. Wirtz
46′
49′
J. Brandt 2–2
E. Haaland
3–2 M. Diaby
55′
Florian Wirtz 🟨
60′
60′
🟨 Erling Braut Haaland
A. Adli 🔁
↦ Paulinho
63′
65′
🔁 D. Malen
↦ A. Witsel
Jeremie Frimpong 🟨
70′
71′
Raphaël Guerreiro 3–3
Odilon Kossounou 🟨
75′
77′
E. Haaland 3–4
K. Bellarabi 🔁
↦ K. Demirbay
79′
L. Alario 🔁
↦ P. Schick
79′
84′
🔁 M. Hummels
↦ M. Pongracic
Moussa Diaby 🟨
86′
89′
🔁 M. Wolf
↦ J. Bellingham
92′
🟨 Marius Wolf
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
1 L. Hrádecký G
4 J. Tah D
30 J. Frimpong D
5 M. Bakker D
6 O. Kossounou D
10 K. Demirbay M
8 R. Andrich M
14 P. Schick F
19 M. Diaby M
7 Paulinho M
27 F. Wirtz M
Bench (8)
31 A. Adli
38 K. Bellarabi
13 L. Alario
25 E. Palacios
3 P. Retsos
11 N. Amiri
40 A. Lunev
22 D. Sinkgraven

Coach: G. Seoane

Dortmund

4-3-2-1
1 G. Kobel G
24 T. Meunier D
13 Raphaël Guerreiro D
16 M. Akanji D
34 M. Pongracic D
28 A. Witsel M
19 J. Brandt M
8 M. Dahoud M
22 J. Bellingham M
11 M. Reus M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (9)
21 D. Malen
15 M. Hummels
39 M. Wolf
35 M. Hitz
20 Reinier
36 A. Knauff
30 F. Passlack
42 G. Gürpüz
18 Y. Moukoko

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,11
U
3,84
B ✓
2,17
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,41
U2,5
2,91
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.