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Bundesliga

Referee: M Schmidt

Leverkusen

T S S S T

4–3

Full-time

Dortmund

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

5,3

Scored

1,5

3,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+2,3

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 53%

50%

55%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

60%

90%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,8

4,2

Scored

1,6

2,8

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

51% Possession 49%

9 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

4 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 6. · Dortmund 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	20	13	3	4	+35	42
2	RB Leipzig	20	12	5	3	+28	41
3	Dortmund	20	11	6	3	+28	39
4	M'gladbach	20	12	3	5	+15	39
5	Schalke 04	21	9	8	4	+5	35
6	Leverkusen	20	10	4	6	+7	34
7	Hoffenheim	21	10	3	8	-1	33
8	Freiburg	21	9	5	7	+0	32
9	Ein Frankfurt	21	8	4	9	+6	28
10	Wolfsburg	21	7	7	7	-1	28
11	Union Berlin	21	8	2	11	-7	26
12	Augsburg	21	7	5	9	-11	26
13	FC Koln	20	7	2	11	-11	23
14	Hertha	21	6	5	10	-12	23
15	Mainz	21	7	0	14	-17	21
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	21	4	5	12	-22	17
17	Werder Bremen	21	4	5	12	-23	17
18	Paderborn	21	4	4	13	-19	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	10	8	1	1	+14	25
2	Dortmund	10	7	3	0	+26	24
3	Bayern Munich	10	7	1	2	+24	22
4	RB Leipzig	10	6	3	1	+16	21
5	Ein Frankfurt	11	6	3	2	+12	21
6	Schalke 04	11	5	5	1	+5	20
7	Union Berlin	10	6	0	4	+3	18
8	Augsburg	10	5	2	3	+4	17
9	Freiburg	10	5	2	3	+2	17
10	Leverkusen	10	4	4	2	+5	16
11	FC Koln	10	5	1	4	+4	16
12	Hoffenheim	11	5	1	5	-5	16
13	Wolfsburg	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Hertha	11	3	2	6	-9	11
16	Mainz	10	3	0	7	-8	9
17	Paderborn	11	2	1	8	-12	7
18	Werder Bremen	10	1	2	7	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	10	6	2	2	+12	20
2	Bayern Munich	10	6	2	2	+11	20
3	Leverkusen	10	6	0	4	+2	18
4	Hoffenheim	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Dortmund	10	4	3	3	+2	15
6	Schalke 04	10	4	3	3	+0	15
7	Freiburg	11	4	3	4	-2	15
8	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Wolfsburg	10	4	2	4	+0	14
10	Hertha	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-7	12
12	Mainz	11	4	0	7	-9	12
13	Paderborn	10	2	3	5	-7	9
14	Augsburg	11	2	3	6	-15	9
15	Union Berlin	11	2	2	7	-10	8
16	Ein Frankfurt	10	2	1	7	-6	7
17	FC Koln	10	2	1	7	-15	7
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	1	3	7	-15	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.