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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Stoke

S U U T U

3–0

Full-time

Plymouth

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Plymouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,5

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 43/43 matches

Win Ø 28%

28%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

42%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,82 xG 0,31

52% Possession 48%

23 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 1

10 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 20. · Plymouth 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	43	29	4	10	+42	+34.7	91
2	Ipswich	43	26	11	6	+32	+24.7	89
3	Leeds	41	24	9	8	+40	+35.8	81
4	Southampton	40	23	9	8	+27	+32.0	78
5	West Brom	42	20	12	10	+26	+7.2	72
6	Norwich	41	21	8	12	+18	-0.0	71
7	Hull	42	18	11	13	+8	+4.9	65
8	Coventry	42	17	12	13	+14	+11.1	63
9	Middlesbrough	43	18	9	16	+5	+12.5	63
10	Preston	43	18	9	16	-4	-12.3	63
11	Cardiff	43	18	5	20	-12	-24.5	59
12	Bristol City	43	16	10	17	+4	-1.7	58
13	Sunderland	43	16	8	19	+2	+7.1	56
14	Swansea	43	14	11	18	-9	-7.4	53
15	Watford	43	12	16	15	+1	-0.5	52
16	Millwall	43	13	11	19	-13	-10.8	50
17	Blackburn	43	13	10	20	-14	-8.7	49
18	Plymouth	43	12	12	19	-8	-19.5	48
19	QPR	43	12	11	20	-17	-5.5	47
20	Stoke	43	12	11	20	-19	-4.8	47
21	Birmingham	43	12	9	22	-16	-8.6	45
22	Huddersfield	43	9	17	17	-23	-11.1	44
23	Sheffield Weds	43	12	8	23	-31	-9.1	44
24	Rotherham	43	4	11	28	-53	-45.3	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	22	15	6	1	+25	+23.3	51
2	Leeds	21	15	5	1	+29	+25.4	50
3	Leicester	21	16	1	4	+26	+18.0	49
4	Norwich	20	15	2	3	+22	+9.7	47
5	West Brom	21	14	4	3	+20	+11.9	46
6	Southampton	21	14	3	4	+25	+23.5	45
7	Preston	22	11	4	7	+2	-2.5	37
8	Coventry	20	9	8	3	+12	+7.9	35
9	Bristol City	22	10	4	8	+8	+2.0	34
10	Birmingham	22	9	6	7	+5	+1.2	33
11	Hull	22	8	8	6	+8	+7.1	32
12	Plymouth	22	9	5	8	+5	-10.1	32
13	Sunderland	21	10	2	9	+3	+6.2	32
14	Middlesbrough	21	9	4	8	+3	+11.6	31
15	Cardiff	21	9	3	9	-3	-11.1	30
16	Swansea	22	8	5	9	-1	+2.7	29
17	Millwall	22	8	5	9	-8	-3.0	29
18	Sheffield Weds	22	7	7	8	-3	+2.7	28
19	Huddersfield	21	6	7	8	-6	-2.3	25
20	Blackburn	21	6	6	9	-5	+1.5	24
21	Stoke	21	6	6	9	-10	+0.5	24
22	Watford	21	5	8	8	+3	+8.3	23
23	QPR	21	5	6	10	-9	+0.0	21
24	Rotherham	21	4	7	10	-7	-13.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	22	13	3	6	+16	+16.7	42
2	Ipswich	21	11	5	5	+7	+1.4	38
3	Southampton	19	9	6	4	+2	+8.5	33
4	Hull	20	10	3	7	+0	-2.2	33
5	Middlesbrough	22	9	5	8	+2	+0.8	32
6	Leeds	20	9	4	7	+11	+10.4	31
7	Watford	22	7	8	7	-2	-8.8	29
8	Cardiff	22	9	2	11	-9	-13.4	29
9	Coventry	22	8	4	10	+2	+3.2	28
10	West Brom	21	6	8	7	+6	-4.7	26
11	Preston	21	7	5	9	-6	-9.8	26
12	QPR	22	7	5	10	-8	-5.5	26
13	Blackburn	22	7	4	11	-9	-10.2	25
14	Sunderland	22	6	6	10	-1	+1.0	24
15	Norwich	21	6	6	9	-4	-9.8	24
16	Bristol City	21	6	6	9	-4	-3.7	24
17	Swansea	21	6	6	9	-8	-10.1	24
18	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-9	-5.3	23
19	Millwall	21	5	6	10	-5	-7.8	21
20	Huddersfield	22	3	10	9	-17	-8.8	19
21	Plymouth	21	3	7	11	-13	-9.4	16
22	Sheffield Weds	21	5	1	15	-28	-11.9	16
23	Birmingham	21	3	3	15	-21	-9.8	12
24	Rotherham	22	0	4	18	-46	-32.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.