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Bundesliga

Referee: M Jöllenbeck

Leverkusen

S T S S S

2–3

Full-time

RB Leipzig

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

1,0

Scored

3,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,33 xG 1,11

63% Possession 37%

27 Shots 10

10 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

18 Corners 2

0 Offside 5

7 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 8. · RB Leipzig 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.9	4
2	Union Berlin	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
3	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
4	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
5	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
6	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
8	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
9	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
12	Mainz	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
13	Werder Bremen	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
15	Stuttgart	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
16	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
17	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
18	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
2	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
3	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
4	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
5	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
6	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
7	Stuttgart	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
8	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
9	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
10	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
11	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
12	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
13	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
14	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
15	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
2	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
3	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
6	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
7	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
8	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
9	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
10	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
11	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
12	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
13	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
14	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
15	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.