Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Crystal Palace
Liverpool
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | +29 | +4.9 | 57 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | +39 | +9.3 | 55 |
| 3 |
Man United
|
24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | +13 | +2.9 | 49 |
| 4 |
Tottenham
|
24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | +9 | -0.7 | 42 |
| 5 |
Newcastle
|
23 | 10 | 11 | 2 | +20 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 6 |
Fulham
|
25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | +5 | -1.9 | 39 |
| 7 |
Brighton
|
22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | +10 | +5.8 | 35 |
| 8 |
Liverpool
|
22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | +10 | +1.5 | 35 |
| 9 |
Brentford
|
23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | +7 | +1.7 | 35 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | +0 | +1.8 | 31 |
| 11 |
Aston Villa
|
24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -8 | -5.7 | 31 |
| 12 |
Crystal Palace
|
23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -10 | -4.4 | 26 |
| 13 |
Nott'm Forest
|
24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -24 | -4.7 | 25 |
| 14 |
Leicester
|
24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | -6 | -3.5 | 24 |
| 15 |
Wolves
|
24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -15 | -1.7 | 24 |
| 16 |
West Ham
|
24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -6 | +3.1 | 23 |
| 17 |
Leeds
|
24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -10 | -0.5 | 22 |
| 18 |
Everton
|
24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -15 | -2.2 | 21 |
| 19 |
Bournemouth
|
24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -26 | -3.0 | 21 |
| 20 |
Southampton
|
24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -22 | -3.5 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
J. Andersen
D
M. Guéhi
D
T. Mitchell
D
C. Doucouré
M
A. Lokonga
M
M. Olise
M
J. Ayew
M
J. Mateta
F
Coach: P. Vieira
Alisson
G
T. Alexander-Arnold
D
V. van Dijk
D
A. Robertson
D
J. Henderson
M
Mohamed Salah
F
C. Gakpo
F
Coach: J. Klopp
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Brentford
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Man United
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Man United
D England · 176 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.