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Premier League
Referee: S Attwell
Tottenham
T U S U U
2–1
Full-time
Brighton
U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tottenham Brighton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
3,7
Scored
1,2
2,8
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 29/27 matches
Win Ø 50%
52%
48%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
52%
59%
Both score Ø 56%
55%
56%
Average goals
3,2
3,1
Scored
1,8
1,9
Conceded
1,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,83 xG 1,43
35% Possession 65%
9 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 8
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 7
2 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Tottenham 5. · Brighton 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Arsenal 29 23 3 3 +43 +12.6 72
2 Man City 28 20 4 4 +45 +14.7 64
3 Man United 29 17 5 7 +7 +0.4 56
4 Newcastle 28 14 11 3 +26 +8.3 53
5 Tottenham 29 15 5 9 +12 +1.1 50
6 Brighton 27 13 7 7 +17 +12.6 46
7 Aston Villa 29 13 5 11 -1 -3.7 44
8 Liverpool 28 12 7 9 +15 +1.8 43
9 Brentford 29 10 13 6 +8 +0.7 43
10 Fulham 28 11 6 11 +0 -5.9 39
11 Chelsea 29 10 9 10 -1 +5.0 39
12 Crystal Palace 29 7 9 13 -15 -5.5 30
13 Leeds 29 7 8 14 -11 -4.3 29
14 Wolves 29 7 7 15 -19 -4.5 28
15 West Ham 28 7 6 15 -13 -0.8 27
16 Everton 30 6 9 15 -20 -8.0 27
17 Nott'm Forest 29 6 9 14 -28 -8.3 27
18 Bournemouth 29 7 6 16 -30 -6.2 27
19 Leicester 29 7 4 18 -11 -4.0 25
20 Southampton 29 6 5 18 -24 -6.0 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Tottenham Brighton
1–0 Son Heung-Min
I. Perišić
10′
34′
L. Dunk 1–1
S. March
Half-time 1–1
56′
ℹ️ Danny Welbeck
VAR: Goal cancelled
64′
🟨 Pascal Groß
66′
🔁 E. Ferguson
↦ D. Welbeck
Ivan Perišić 🟨
67′
69′
🔁 A. Webster
↦ L. Colwill
A. Danjuma 🔁
↦ D. Kulusevski
78′
2–1 H. Kane
P. Højbjerg
79′
85′
🔁 J. Enciso
↦ J. Veltman
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 🟨
87′
P. Sarr 🔁
↦ O. Skipp
88′
Cristian Romero 🟨
91′
J. Tanganga 🔁
↦ I. Perišić
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Tottenham

3-4-2-1
1 H. Lloris G
17 C. Romero D
15 E. Dier D
34 C. Lenglet D
23 Pedro Porro M
5 P. Højbjerg M
4 O. Skipp M
14 I. Perišić M
21 D. Kulusevski F
7 Son Heung-Min F
10 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
16 A. Danjuma
29 P. Sarr
25 J. Tanganga
20 F. Forster
40 B. Austin
6 D. Sánchez
55 R. Mundle
45 A. Devine
9 Richarlison

Coach: C. Stellini

Brighton

4-2-3-1
23 J. Steele G
34 J. Veltman D
5 L. Dunk D
6 L. Colwill D
30 P. Estupiñán D
13 P. Groß M
25 M. Caicedo M
7 S. March M
10 A. Mac Allister M
22 K. Mitoma M
18 D. Welbeck F
Bench (9)
28 E. Ferguson
4 A. Webster
20 J. Enciso
27 B. Gilmour
26 Y. Ayari
1 Robert Sánchez
40 F. Buonanotte
21 D. Undav
29 J. van Hecke

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,56
U
3,56
B
2,69
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,81
U2,5
2,01
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Attwell · 153 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.