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Bundesliga

Referee: D Aytekin

Hertha

S T U T U

0–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hertha RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 35%

19%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

54%

73%

Both score Ø 62%

65%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,51 xG 1,99

33% Possession 67%

11 Shots 18

1 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hertha 16. · RB Leipzig 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	17	7	3	+48	+7.8	58
2	Dortmund	27	18	2	7	+23	+9.4	56
3	Union Berlin	27	15	6	6	+12	-3.8	51
4	Freiburg	27	13	8	6	+3	-5.1	47
5	RB Leipzig	26	13	6	7	+16	+5.0	45
6	Leverkusen	27	13	4	10	+10	+9.6	43
7	Ein Frankfurt	27	11	8	8	+8	-1.2	41
8	Mainz	27	11	8	8	+7	+2.4	41
9	Wolfsburg	26	10	9	7	+12	+6.9	39
10	M'gladbach	26	8	8	10	-4	-1.1	32
11	Werder Bremen	27	9	5	13	-10	-6.0	32
12	FC Koln	27	7	10	10	-9	-0.1	31
13	Augsburg	27	8	5	14	-15	-7.0	29
14	Bochum	26	8	2	16	-29	-6.1	26
15	Hoffenheim	26	7	4	15	-11	-3.4	25
16	Hertha	26	5	7	14	-18	-5.1	22
17	Schalke 04	26	4	9	13	-27	-1.7	21
18	Stuttgart	26	4	8	14	-16	-0.5	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	13	11	1	1	+25	+7.0	34
2	Bayern Munich	13	9	4	0	+30	+8.6	31
3	Union Berlin	13	9	4	0	+16	+0.0	31
4	RB Leipzig	13	9	2	2	+15	-1.9	29
5	Freiburg	14	8	4	2	+10	-2.4	28
6	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	3	3	+13	+4.4	24
7	M'gladbach	13	7	3	3	+10	+3.7	24
8	Leverkusen	14	7	2	5	+11	+5.7	23
9	Mainz	14	5	6	3	+8	+2.0	21
10	FC Koln	13	5	4	4	+7	+3.0	19
11	Bochum	12	6	1	5	-3	+0.9	19
12	Wolfsburg	13	4	6	3	+6	+5.8	18
13	Augsburg	14	5	3	6	-6	-2.2	18
14	Hertha	13	4	5	4	-1	-0.1	17
15	Werder Bremen	14	5	1	8	+0	+0.5	16
16	Stuttgart	13	4	3	6	+0	+1.2	15
17	Hoffenheim	13	4	2	7	-5	+1.1	14
18	Schalke 04	14	3	4	7	-17	-2.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	8	3	3	+18	-0.8	27
2	Dortmund	14	7	1	6	-2	+2.3	22
3	Wolfsburg	13	6	3	4	+6	+1.1	21
4	Leverkusen	13	6	2	5	-1	+3.9	20
5	Mainz	13	6	2	5	-1	+0.4	20
6	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	-4	-3.8	20
7	Freiburg	13	5	4	4	-7	-2.7	19
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-5	-5.6	17
9	RB Leipzig	13	4	4	5	+1	+7.0	16
10	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-10	-6.6	16
11	FC Koln	14	2	6	6	-16	-3.0	12
12	Hoffenheim	13	3	2	8	-6	-4.5	11
13	Augsburg	13	3	2	8	-9	-4.8	11
14	Schalke 04	12	1	5	6	-10	+1.1	8
15	M'gladbach	13	1	5	7	-14	-4.8	8
16	Bochum	14	2	1	11	-26	-7.0	7
17	Stuttgart	13	0	5	8	-16	-1.7	5
18	Hertha	13	1	2	10	-17	-5.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.