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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Ajax

T S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Heracles

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

3,0

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 35%

15%

55%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

3,1

1,1

Conceded

0,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

71% Possession 29%

25 Shots 5

12 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 9

7 Corners 0

10 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Heracles 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	20	15	3	2	+56	48
2	PSV Eindhoven	21	15	1	5	+21	46
3	Feyenoord	21	14	3	4	+31	45
4	Twente	21	12	5	4	+12	41
5	Utrecht	20	10	5	5	+12	35
6	AZ Alkmaar	19	11	2	6	+12	35
7	Vitesse	19	10	2	7	-5	32
8	Cambuur	21	9	3	9	-8	30
9	Nijmegen	21	7	6	8	-5	27
10	Groningen	21	6	7	8	-5	25
11	Heerenveen	20	7	4	9	-8	25
12	Waalwijk	21	5	7	9	-10	22
13	Go Ahead Eagles	21	6	4	11	-13	22
14	Willem II	21	6	3	12	-19	21
15	Heracles	20	5	5	10	-5	20
16	For Sittard	21	4	4	13	-27	16
17	Sparta Rotterdam	21	2	8	11	-19	14
18	Zwolle	21	3	4	14	-20	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	11	8	1	2	+18	25
2	Utrecht	11	7	3	1	+14	24
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	8	0	3	+13	24
4	AZ Alkmaar	10	7	2	1	+14	23
5	Ajax	10	7	1	2	+35	22
6	Twente	10	6	3	1	+9	21
7	Heracles	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Cambuur	10	4	1	5	-3	13
9	Willem II	11	4	1	6	-7	13
10	Waalwijk	10	4	1	5	-7	13
11	Groningen	10	2	6	2	+1	12
12	Go Ahead Eagles	10	4	0	6	-2	12
13	Heerenveen	10	3	2	5	-5	11
14	For Sittard	10	3	2	5	-10	11
15	Vitesse	8	3	1	4	-6	10
16	Nijmegen	10	2	3	5	-4	9
17	Zwolle	11	2	3	6	-5	9
18	Sparta Rotterdam	11	1	5	5	-8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	10	8	2	0	+21	26
2	PSV Eindhoven	10	7	1	2	+8	22
3	Vitesse	11	7	1	3	+1	22
4	Feyenoord	10	6	2	2	+13	20
5	Twente	11	6	2	3	+3	20
6	Nijmegen	11	5	3	3	-1	18
7	Cambuur	11	5	2	4	-5	17
8	Heerenveen	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Groningen	11	4	1	6	-6	13
10	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	0	5	-2	12
11	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Go Ahead Eagles	11	2	4	5	-11	10
13	Waalwijk	11	1	6	4	-3	9
14	Willem II	10	2	2	6	-12	8
15	Sparta Rotterdam	10	1	3	6	-11	6
16	For Sittard	11	1	2	8	-17	5
17	Zwolle	10	1	1	8	-15	4
18	Heracles	9	0	2	7	-8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.