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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

Nijmegen

T T S U T

3–0

Full-time

Utrecht

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

80%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,34 xG 1,91

42% Possession 58%

9 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 13. · Utrecht 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+12	+7.2	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+10	+4.3	12
3	Twente	4	4	0	0	+9	+3.9	12
4	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+14	+10.8	11
5	Go Ahead Eagles	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.3	10
6	For Sittard	6	2	3	1	+0	+2.2	9
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.7	8
8	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	-1	+2.6	7
9	Heracles	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.9	7
10	Excelsior	5	1	3	1	-1	-2.7	6
11	Heerenveen	5	2	0	3	-4	-5.8	6
12	Ajax	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.3	5
13	Nijmegen	5	1	1	3	-3	-6.4	4
14	Vitesse	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.3	3
15	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.4	3
16	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-9	+1.1	3
17	Volendam	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.5	1
18	Almere City	5	0	1	4	-10	-3.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Go Ahead Eagles	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.2	9
2	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+10	+5.9	7
3	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
4	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.4	6
5	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+6.2	6
6	Twente	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
7	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
8	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.6	4
9	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
10	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.4	3
11	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
12	Excelsior	3	0	3	0	+0	-2.3	3
13	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Volendam	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.0	1
15	Almere City	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0
16	Vitesse	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.9	0
17	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-6	-0.3	0
18	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.1	6
2	Twente	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.2	6
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.9	6
4	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.9	6
5	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.8	4
6	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
8	Utrecht	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
9	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
10	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.4	3
11	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-4	-5.1	3
12	Ajax	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.4	2
13	For Sittard	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.7	2
14	Heracles	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.3	1
15	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-4	-4.5	1
16	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.8	1
17	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.5	1
18	Volendam	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.