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Ligue 1

Referee: F Batta

Nantes

T T U U S

5–3

Full-time

Lorient

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,14 xG 1,74

44% Possession 56%

19 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

8 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nantes 15. · Lorient 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	6	3	3	0	+4	+3.9	12
2	Monaco	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.7	11
3	Brest	5	3	1	1	+1	+0.9	10
4	Marseille	5	2	3	0	+3	+5.6	9
5	Paris SG	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.0	8
6	Lille	5	2	2	1	+0	+2.5	8
7	Metz	5	2	2	1	-2	-6.2	8
8	Rennes	5	1	4	0	+4	+5.5	7
9	Reims	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.1	7
10	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	-2	+1.4	7
11	Le Havre	5	1	3	1	+2	-2.6	6
12	Lorient	5	1	3	1	+0	-3.8	6
13	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	-1	-5.7	6
14	Montpellier	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.3	5
15	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.7	5
16	Lyon	5	0	2	3	-7	-5.4	2
17	Clermont	5	0	1	4	-6	-1.7	1
18	Lens	5	0	1	4	-7	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Strasbourg	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.0	7
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
3	Monaco	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.8	6
4	Lille	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.2	6
5	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+6.2	5
6	Lorient	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
7	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
8	Paris SG	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.8	4
9	Brest	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.9	4
10	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.5	3
11	Reims	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.3	3
12	Metz	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.1	2
13	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
14	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	-4.1	2
15	Lens	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.3	1
16	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
17	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1
18	Clermont	3	0	0	3	-4	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.3	7
2	Brest	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.0	6
3	Metz	3	2	0	1	-2	-5.1	6
4	Monaco	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.9	5
5	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
6	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.3	4
7	Reims	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
8	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.7	4
9	Le Havre	3	0	3	0	+0	-4.0	3
10	Nantes	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Marseille	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.1	2
12	Rennes	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
13	Lille	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.3	2
14	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
15	Clermont	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
16	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.4	1
17	Strasbourg	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.5	0
18	Lens	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.