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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Spezia

T S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Salernitana

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

2,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-1,5

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 14%

14%

Points per game

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

86%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

71%

29%

Average goals

3,9

2,9

Scored

1,1

0,7

Conceded

2,7

2,1

Goal diff per game

-1,6

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

18 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 9

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 2

5 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 19. · Salernitana 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Milan	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	Inter	7	5	2	0	+14	17
4	Roma	7	5	0	2	+8	15
5	Fiorentina	7	4	0	3	-1	12
6	Lazio	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Atalanta	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Bologna	7	3	2	2	-2	11
10	Empoli	7	3	0	4	-3	9
11	Torino	7	2	2	3	+2	8
12	Verona	7	2	2	3	+1	8
13	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Sassuolo	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Sampdoria	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Genoa	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Venezia	7	1	2	4	-7	5
18	Salernitana	7	1	1	5	-10	4
19	Spezia	7	1	1	5	-11	4
20	Cagliari	7	0	3	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Bologna	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Milan	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Inter	3	2	1	0	+9	7
6	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+6	7
7	Verona	4	2	0	2	+2	6
8	Torino	4	1	1	2	+2	4
9	Juventus	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Salernitana	4	1	1	2	-4	4
14	Fiorentina	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Sampdoria	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Venezia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Spezia	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Inter	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Milan	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Fiorentina	4	3	0	1	+1	9
5	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Empoli	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Sampdoria	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Lazio	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Venezia	5	1	1	3	-6	4
14	Spezia	4	1	1	2	-8	4
15	Roma	3	1	0	2	+2	3
16	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Salernitana	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.