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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Toulouse

S U U T T

1–2

Full-time

Le Havre

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Le Havre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,3

Scored

1,2

0,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,61 xG 1,11

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Le Havre 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	7	3	1	+17	+13.3	24
2	Nice	10	6	4	0	+7	+7.0	22
3	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+9	+6.4	20
4	Lille	11	5	4	2	+4	+3.7	19
5	Reims	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.9	17
6	Brest	10	4	3	3	+0	+1.1	15
7	Nantes	10	4	2	4	-3	-7.4	14
8	Marseille	10	3	4	3	+0	+7.9	13
9	Lens	11	3	4	4	-1	+3.7	13
10	Rennes	10	2	6	2	+3	+4.7	12
11	Montpellier	10	3	3	4	+1	+3.0	12
12	Toulouse	10	2	5	3	-2	-9.7	11
13	Le Havre	10	2	5	3	-2	-5.1	11
14	Lorient	11	2	5	4	-5	-7.2	11
15	Strasbourg	10	3	2	5	-6	-3.2	11
16	Metz	11	2	4	5	-8	-9.4	10
17	Clermont	9	1	2	6	-7	-6.3	5
18	Lyon	10	0	4	6	-11	-6.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	1	1	+11	+5.5	13
2	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+7	+2.8	12
3	Lille	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.7	12
4	Marseille	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.7	11
5	Rennes	6	2	3	1	+4	+5.7	9
6	Nice	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.1	9
7	Reims	5	3	0	2	+2	+4.3	9
8	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+1	-3.7	9
9	Lens	5	2	2	1	+4	+6.4	8
10	Nantes	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.7	8
11	Brest	5	2	2	1	+1	+5.0	8
12	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
13	Le Havre	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.5	7
14	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+3	-1.9	6
15	Montpellier	4	1	2	1	+1	+2.6	5
16	Metz	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.4	3
17	Lyon	6	0	3	3	-7	-1.9	3
18	Clermont	5	0	1	4	-5	-4.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	5	4	1	0	+4	+2.8	13
2	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
3	Monaco	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.6	8
4	Reims	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.4	8
5	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.5	7
6	Lille	6	1	4	1	-1	+0.0	7
7	Brest	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.9	7
8	Metz	6	2	1	3	-6	-8.0	7
9	Nantes	5	2	0	3	-6	-4.7	6
10	Lens	6	1	2	3	-5	-2.8	5
11	Toulouse	6	1	2	3	-5	-7.8	5
12	Clermont	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
13	Le Havre	5	0	4	1	-3	-6.6	4
14	Strasbourg	5	1	1	3	-7	-5.2	4
15	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.0	3
16	Lorient	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.5	2
17	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.