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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Fulham

S S T U S

1–1

Full-time

Arsenal

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 50%

43%

57%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 65%

79%

50%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,16 xG 2,03

34% Possession 66%

2 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 9. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	2	1	+18	+15.7	35
2	Chelsea	14	8	4	2	+16	+10.7	28
3	Arsenal	14	8	4	2	+14	+10.0	28
4	Man City	15	8	3	4	+6	+7.5	27
5	Nott'm Forest	15	7	4	4	+1	+1.1	25
6	Aston Villa	15	7	4	4	+0	+8.0	25
7	Brentford	15	7	2	6	+3	-2.0	23
8	Brighton	14	6	5	3	+3	-1.1	23
9	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+2	+4.1	22
10	Bournemouth	14	6	3	5	+2	+10.5	21
11	Tottenham	14	6	2	6	+13	+5.2	20
12	Newcastle	15	5	5	5	-2	+1.2	20
13	Man United	15	5	4	6	+1	-1.1	19
14	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-9	-4.1	15
15	Everton	14	3	5	6	-7	-3.9	14
16	Crystal Palace	15	2	7	6	-6	-1.5	13
17	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	-14.0	13
18	Ipswich	14	1	6	7	-12	-15.9	9
19	Wolves	14	2	3	9	-14	-11.2	9
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-20	-19.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	8	7	1	0	+12	+7.0	22
2	Liverpool	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.7	18
3	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+11	+10.4	17
4	Man City	7	5	1	1	+5	+8.6	16
5	Aston Villa	8	4	3	1	+4	+9.5	15
6	Tottenham	7	4	1	2	+10	+5.0	13
7	Bournemouth	7	4	1	2	+4	+7.5	13
8	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	+2.7	13
9	Man United	8	4	1	3	+2	+0.7	13
10	Fulham	7	4	1	2	+1	+2.5	13
11	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+4	+7.0	12
12	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.7	11
13	Newcastle	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.0	11
14	Everton	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.8	9
15	Leicester	7	2	2	3	-1	-7.4	8
16	Crystal Palace	8	1	4	3	-4	+1.2	7
17	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
18	Ipswich	7	0	4	3	-5	-3.7	4
19	Wolves	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.8	4
20	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-9	-10.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	+7.0	17
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+12	+3.7	16
3	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	-1	-1.6	14
4	Arsenal	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.4	11
5	Man City	8	3	2	3	+1	-1.1	11
6	Brighton	7	3	1	3	+0	-3.7	10
7	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	-4	-1.5	10
8	Fulham	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.6	9
9	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	-2	+0.1	9
10	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.0	8
11	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.4	8
12	Tottenham	7	2	1	4	+3	+0.3	7
13	Man United	7	1	3	3	-1	-1.7	6
14	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.7	6
15	Wolves	7	1	2	4	-7	-5.4	5
16	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-7	-12.1	5
17	Leicester	7	1	2	4	-8	-6.6	5
18	Everton	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.1	5
19	Brentford	7	0	1	6	-9	-9.0	1
20	Southampton	8	0	1	7	-11	-8.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.