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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Lyon

T S S T S

5–4

Full-time

Montpellier

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 42%

45%

39%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

58%

61%

Both score Ø 61%

67%

55%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,91 xG 1,79

70% Possession 30%

16 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 7. · Montpellier 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	24	3	6	+42	+2.3	75
2	Lens	34	21	9	4	+31	+7.1	72
3	Marseille	34	21	7	6	+28	+9.6	70
4	Monaco	34	19	7	8	+17	+4.5	64
5	Lille	34	17	8	9	+19	+12.9	59
6	Rennes	34	17	5	12	+18	+2.4	56
7	Lyon	33	15	8	10	+15	+0.7	53
8	Nice	34	13	12	9	+10	+6.4	51
9	Lorient	34	14	9	11	+2	-4.5	51
10	Reims	34	12	14	8	+6	+9.9	50
11	Clermont	34	14	8	12	-7	-0.4	50
12	Montpellier	33	13	4	16	+0	-0.5	43
13	Toulouse	34	12	6	16	-7	+2.0	42
14	Strasbourg	34	8	11	15	-9	+2.2	35
15	Brest	34	8	11	15	-12	-8.5	35
16	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-24	-2.9	34
17	Nantes	34	6	14	14	-15	-6.1	32
18	Ajaccio	34	6	5	23	-39	-6.5	23
19	Troyes	33	4	10	19	-29	-18.1	22
20	Angers	34	3	5	26	-46	-12.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	17	15	1	1	+24	+1.2	46
2	Rennes	17	13	0	4	+23	+4.4	39
3	Paris SG	17	12	2	3	+16	-1.2	38
4	Lille	17	11	4	2	+13	+9.7	37
5	Marseille	17	9	4	4	+10	+6.1	31
6	Reims	17	8	5	4	+7	+10.5	29
7	Monaco	17	9	2	6	+5	-0.6	29
8	Lorient	17	8	4	5	+6	+2.1	28
9	Lyon	16	7	5	4	+10	+2.2	26
10	Nice	17	6	6	5	+4	+2.1	24
11	Clermont	17	7	3	7	-11	+1.8	24
12	Montpellier	17	7	2	8	+1	-0.4	23
13	Toulouse	17	6	4	7	+0	+2.0	22
14	Auxerre	17	5	7	5	-7	+1.6	22
15	Brest	16	5	5	6	-3	-2.4	20
16	Nantes	17	4	8	5	-4	-1.3	20
17	Strasbourg	17	4	6	7	-3	+4.4	18
18	Troyes	16	1	9	6	-9	-9.0	12
19	Ajaccio	17	3	3	11	-16	-1.0	12
20	Angers	18	2	3	13	-17	-4.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	17	12	3	2	+18	+3.5	39
2	Paris SG	16	12	1	3	+26	+3.5	37
3	Monaco	17	10	5	2	+12	+5.1	35
4	Nice	17	7	6	4	+6	+4.3	27
5	Lyon	17	8	3	6	+5	-1.5	27
6	Lens	17	6	8	3	+7	+5.9	26
7	Clermont	17	7	5	5	+4	-2.3	26
8	Lorient	17	6	5	6	-4	-6.6	23
9	Lille	17	6	4	7	+6	+3.3	22
10	Reims	17	4	9	4	-1	-0.6	21
11	Montpellier	16	6	2	8	-1	-0.1	20
12	Toulouse	17	6	2	9	-7	-0.0	20
13	Rennes	17	4	5	8	-5	-2.0	17
14	Strasbourg	17	4	5	8	-6	-2.2	17
15	Brest	18	3	6	9	-9	-6.1	15
16	Nantes	17	2	6	9	-11	-4.8	12
17	Auxerre	17	3	3	11	-17	-4.5	12
18	Ajaccio	17	3	2	12	-23	-5.5	11
19	Troyes	17	3	1	13	-20	-9.1	10
20	Angers	16	1	2	13	-29	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.