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Super League
Referee: S Wolfensberger
Luzern
S S S S T
2–2
Full-time
Lugano
U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,7
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
This season — Super League · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 39%
39%
39%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
55%
52%
Both score Ø 68%
65%
71%
Average goals
3,0
2,9
Scored
1,6
1,6
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

44% Possession 56%
14 Shots 13
5 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luzern 3. · Lugano 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 32 19 10 3 +51 67
2 Lugano 31 12 10 9 +8 46
3 Luzern 31 12 9 10 +4 45
4 Servette 31 10 15 6 -1 45
5 Basel 31 10 12 9 +6 42
6 Grasshoppers 31 11 7 13 -6 40
7 St. Gallen 32 9 10 13 +5 37
8 Zurich 31 7 13 11 -18 34
9 Winterthur 32 8 8 16 -29 32
10 Sion 32 7 10 15 -20 31

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Feb -23 Lugano – Luzern 1–1 22. Oct -22 Luzern – Lugano 3–1 7. Aug -22 Lugano – Luzern 1–2 3. Apr -22 Luzern – Lugano 2–2 6. Feb -22 Lugano – Luzern 2–1

Match report

Luzern Lugano
23′
🟨 Kreshnik Hajrizi
1–0 I. Beka ⚽
27′
31′
🟨 Ousmane Doumbia
2–0 M. Meyer ⚽
M. Dräger
36′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 H. Mahmoud
↦ J. Espinoza
52′
⚽ Ž. Celar 2–1
R. Macek
Lars Villiger 🟨
60′
Asumah Abubakar 🔁
↦ L. Villiger
61′
M. Diambou 🔁
↦ M. Dräger
61′
62′
🔁 M. Amoura
↦ I. Aliseda
74′
⚽ R. Steffen 2–2
M. Valenzuela
78′
🟨 Milton Valenzuela
81′
🔁 M. Facchinetti
↦ U. Bislimi
Ismajl Beka 🟨
82′
Asumah Abubakar 🟨
84′
S. Chader 🔁
↦ M. Meyer
87′
L. Breedijk 🔁
↦ P. Schürpf
88′
89′
🔁 J. Angstmann
↦ Ž. Celar
92′
🟨 Renato Steffen
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Luzern

4-2-3-1
1 M. Müller G
74 S. Ottiger D
46 M. Burch D
30 I. Beka D
13 M. Frýdek D
20 P. Dorn M
6 A. Jashari M
2 M. Dräger M
7 M. Meyer M
11 P. Schürpf M
27 L. Villiger F
Bench (9)
21 Asumah Abubakar
15 M. Diambou
69 S. Chader
14 L. Breedijk
90 V. Vasić
5 D. Simani
77 B. Kimpioka
4 L. Jaquez
41 N. Rupp

Coach: M. Frick

Lugano

4-3-3
1 A. Saipi G
6 J. Espinoza D
4 K. Hajrizi D
34 A. Arigoni D
23 M. Valenzuela D
25 U. Bislimi M
20 O. Doumbia M
77 R. Macek M
11 R. Steffen F
9 Ž. Celar F
31 I. Aliseda F
Bench (6)
29 H. Mahmoud
47 M. Amoura
7 M. Facchinetti
50 J. Angstmann
58 S. Osigwe
24 C. Nkama

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U ✓
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Wolfensberger · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.