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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Lille

S S S U U

1–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

45%

18%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

27%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

45%

64%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,62 xG 0,10

60% Possession 40%

13 Shots 2

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Toulouse 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	3	1	+20	+14.1	27
2	Nice	12	7	5	0	+9	+8.1	26
3	Monaco	12	7	3	2	+11	+5.5	24
4	Reims	12	6	2	4	+2	+2.3	20
5	Lille	11	5	4	2	+4	+3.7	19
6	Le Havre	12	3	6	3	-1	-5.7	15
7	Brest	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
8	Nantes	11	4	2	5	-4	-6.6	14
9	Montpellier	11	3	4	4	+1	+2.7	13
10	Marseille	10	3	4	3	+0	+7.9	13
11	Lens	11	3	4	4	-1	+3.7	13
12	Rennes	11	2	6	3	+1	+3.9	12
13	Strasbourg	11	3	3	5	-6	-3.1	12
14	Toulouse	11	2	5	4	-3	-8.2	11
15	Lorient	11	2	5	4	-5	-7.2	11
16	Metz	11	2	4	5	-8	-9.4	10
17	Clermont	10	1	3	6	-7	-6.4	6
18	Lyon	10	0	4	6	-11	-6.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	6	5	0	1	+9	+2.7	15
2	Paris SG	6	4	1	1	+11	+5.5	13
3	Lille	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.7	12
4	Nice	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.0	12
5	Marseille	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.7	11
6	Rennes	6	2	3	1	+4	+5.7	9
7	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+1	-3.7	9
8	Reims	6	3	0	3	-1	+3.5	9
9	Lens	5	2	2	1	+4	+6.4	8
10	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+2	-1.9	8
11	Brest	5	2	2	1	+1	+5.0	8
12	Strasbourg	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.1	8
13	Le Havre	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.4	8
14	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
15	Montpellier	5	1	3	1	+1	+2.2	6
16	Metz	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.4	3
17	Lyon	6	0	3	3	-7	-1.9	3
18	Clermont	5	0	1	4	-5	-4.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.7	14
2	Nice	6	4	2	0	+4	+3.2	14
3	Reims	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.2	11
4	Monaco	6	2	3	1	+2	+2.8	9
5	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.5	7
6	Lille	6	1	4	1	-1	+0.0	7
7	Le Havre	6	1	4	1	-2	-8.1	7
8	Brest	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.8	7
9	Metz	6	2	1	3	-6	-8.0	7
10	Nantes	5	2	0	3	-6	-4.7	6
11	Clermont	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.9	5
12	Lens	6	1	2	3	-5	-2.8	5
13	Toulouse	6	1	2	3	-5	-7.8	5
14	Strasbourg	5	1	1	3	-7	-5.2	4
15	Rennes	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.8	3
16	Lorient	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.5	2
17	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.