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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Montpellier

T S S T T

1–4

Full-time

Lyon

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 31%

19%

43%

Points per game

0,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

57%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,40 xG 0,95

37% Possession 63%

11 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 18. · Lyon 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	17	5	0	+39	+37.5	56
2	Marseille	22	14	4	4	+24	+13.8	46
3	Monaco	22	12	4	6	+15	+23.1	40
4	Nice	21	10	7	4	+15	+12.6	37
5	Lille	21	9	8	4	+12	+7.1	35
6	Lyon	21	9	6	6	+10	+7.1	33
7	Lens	21	9	6	6	+5	+9.0	33
8	Brest	22	10	2	10	-3	-9.6	32
9	Strasbourg	21	8	6	7	+3	-6.9	30
10	Toulouse	22	7	6	9	-2	+6.8	27
11	Auxerre	22	6	7	9	-6	-12.7	25
12	Rennes	21	7	2	12	-1	+2.4	23
13	Angers	21	6	5	10	-9	-7.5	23
14	Reims	21	5	7	9	-7	-11.2	22
15	Nantes	22	4	9	9	-14	-11.8	21
16	St Etienne	22	5	3	14	-30	-28.2	18
17	Le Havre	21	5	2	14	-23	-14.4	17
18	Montpellier	21	4	3	14	-28	-17.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+22	+19.8	29
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+13	+17.2	26
3	Nice	10	7	3	0	+16	+9.4	24
4	Strasbourg	10	6	3	1	+8	+0.9	21
5	Lille	11	6	3	2	+7	+0.5	21
6	Lyon	10	6	2	2	+9	+6.9	20
7	Auxerre	11	5	5	1	+7	-0.6	20
8	Brest	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.7	20
9	Rennes	11	6	1	4	+10	+5.7	19
10	Marseille	11	5	4	2	+7	+11.4	19
11	St Etienne	10	5	1	4	+0	-2.1	16
12	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	+0	+4.0	15
13	Lens	10	4	2	4	+0	+6.7	14
14	Montpellier	11	3	3	5	-10	-4.7	12
15	Angers	11	3	2	6	-7	-7.1	11
16	Nantes	10	2	4	4	-3	-1.3	10
17	Reims	11	2	4	5	-5	-5.1	10
18	Le Havre	10	2	0	8	-16	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	3	0	+17	+17.7	27
2	Marseille	11	9	0	2	+17	+2.5	27
3	Lens	11	5	4	2	+5	+2.3	19
4	Lille	10	3	5	2	+5	+6.7	14
5	Monaco	10	4	2	4	+2	+5.8	14
6	Lyon	11	3	4	4	+1	+0.2	13
7	Nice	11	3	4	4	-1	+3.1	13
8	Reims	10	3	3	4	-2	-6.1	12
9	Toulouse	10	3	3	4	-2	+2.8	12
10	Angers	10	3	3	4	-2	-0.4	12
11	Brest	11	4	0	7	-9	-8.9	12
12	Le Havre	11	3	2	6	-7	-4.7	11
13	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-11	-10.5	11
14	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-5	-7.7	9
15	Auxerre	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.0	5
16	Rennes	10	1	1	8	-11	-3.4	4
17	Montpellier	10	1	0	9	-18	-12.4	3
18	St Etienne	12	0	2	10	-30	-26.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.