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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Brighton

T T U T S

1–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

1,3

3,0

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 47%

38%

56%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

74%

68%

Both score Ø 62%

71%

53%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,9

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,69 xG 1,87

46% Possession 54%

5 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 10. · Newcastle 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	34	25	7	2	+48	+46.8	82
2	Arsenal	35	18	13	4	+33	+25.8	67
3	Man City	35	19	7	9	+24	+16.7	64
4	Newcastle	34	19	5	10	+21	+15.7	62
5	Chelsea	34	17	9	8	+19	+19.5	60
6	Nott'm Forest	34	18	6	10	+12	-2.8	60
7	Aston Villa	35	17	9	9	+6	+8.2	60
8	Bournemouth	35	14	11	10	+13	+14.7	53
9	Fulham	35	14	9	12	+3	+5.2	51
10	Brighton	34	13	12	9	+1	+4.6	51
11	Brentford	34	14	7	13	+8	+0.0	49
12	Crystal Palace	34	11	12	11	-4	+6.9	45
13	Wolves	35	12	5	18	-11	-12.8	41
14	Everton	35	8	15	12	-7	-6.0	39
15	Man United	34	10	9	15	-8	-3.2	39
16	Tottenham	34	11	4	19	+6	-0.9	37
17	West Ham	34	9	9	16	-19	-11.3	36
18	Ipswich	35	4	10	21	-41	-39.8	22
19	Leicester	35	5	6	24	-47	-38.5	21
20	Southampton	35	2	5	28	-57	-48.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	14	2	1	+26	+22.7	44
2	Man City	18	12	3	3	+18	+15.0	39
3	Aston Villa	18	10	7	1	+12	+14.7	37
4	Arsenal	18	10	6	2	+17	+16.9	36
5	Newcastle	17	11	2	4	+19	+9.9	35
6	Chelsea	17	10	5	2	+14	+16.4	35
7	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+11	+3.2	31
8	Brentford	17	8	4	5	+5	+4.4	28
9	Brighton	17	7	7	3	+3	+6.7	28
10	Fulham	17	7	5	5	+1	+0.7	26
11	Bournemouth	17	7	4	6	+6	+7.9	25
12	Tottenham	17	6	3	8	+5	+2.2	21
13	Everton	18	4	9	5	+1	-0.8	21
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	6	6	-4	+6.1	21
15	Man United	17	6	3	8	-5	+0.9	21
16	Wolves	17	6	2	9	-3	-4.8	20
17	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-10	-8.4	19
18	Leicester	18	3	3	12	-21	-15.8	12
19	Ipswich	17	1	4	12	-27	-16.3	7
20	Southampton	17	1	2	14	-33	-27.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+22	+24.1	38
2	Arsenal	17	8	7	2	+16	+8.9	31
3	Nott'm Forest	17	9	2	6	+1	-5.9	29
4	Bournemouth	18	7	7	4	+7	+6.8	28
5	Newcastle	17	8	3	6	+2	+5.8	27
6	Man City	17	7	4	6	+6	+1.7	25
7	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	+3.1	25
8	Fulham	18	7	4	7	+2	+4.5	25
9	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	+0	+0.8	24
10	Brighton	17	6	5	6	-2	-2.1	23
11	Aston Villa	17	7	2	8	-6	-6.4	23
12	Brentford	17	6	3	8	+3	-4.3	21
13	Wolves	18	6	3	9	-8	-8.0	21
14	Man United	17	4	6	7	-3	-4.1	18
15	Everton	17	4	6	7	-8	-5.3	18
16	West Ham	17	4	5	8	-9	-2.9	17
17	Tottenham	17	5	1	11	+1	-3.1	16
18	Ipswich	18	3	6	9	-14	-23.5	15
19	Leicester	17	2	3	12	-26	-22.7	9
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-24	-21.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.