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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Roma

S U U S S

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

38%

59%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,63 xG 0,96

41% Possession 59%

12 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 7. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	35	23	8	4	+30	+20.2	77
2	Inter	35	22	8	5	+40	+31.6	74
3	Atalanta	35	20	8	7	+40	+26.2	68
4	Lazio	35	18	9	8	+13	+15.9	63
5	Juventus	34	16	14	4	+20	+13.9	62
6	Bologna	34	16	13	5	+15	+13.1	61
7	Roma	34	17	9	8	+17	+12.5	60
8	Fiorentina	34	17	8	9	+19	+5.6	59
9	Milan	34	15	9	10	+15	+19.4	54
10	Como	35	12	9	14	-3	+0.9	45
11	Torino	35	10	14	11	-1	-13.6	44
12	Udinese	35	12	8	15	-11	-9.6	44
13	Genoa	34	9	12	13	-12	-8.1	39
14	Cagliari	35	8	9	18	-15	-11.1	33
15	Parma	35	6	14	15	-14	-13.9	32
16	Verona	35	9	5	21	-33	-19.6	32
17	Lecce	35	6	9	20	-33	-22.8	27
18	Venezia	35	4	14	17	-21	-19.0	26
19	Empoli	35	4	13	18	-28	-18.3	25
20	Monza	35	2	9	24	-38	-23.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	3	2	+19	+15.8	42
2	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+17	+15.2	41
3	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+14	+9.4	37
4	Fiorentina	18	11	4	3	+13	+8.5	37
5	Bologna	17	10	6	1	+17	+14.8	36
6	Roma	17	11	2	4	+19	+10.5	35
7	Atalanta	17	8	5	4	+12	+11.1	29
8	Lazio	17	7	8	2	+8	+10.7	29
9	Milan	17	7	7	3	+10	+9.5	28
10	Como	17	7	5	5	+2	+2.1	26
11	Torino	17	6	7	4	+3	-5.0	25
12	Udinese	17	7	3	7	-3	-5.1	24
13	Genoa	17	5	7	5	-2	-1.9	22
14	Parma	18	5	5	8	-3	-0.9	20
15	Cagliari	18	5	4	9	-7	-2.2	19
16	Venezia	17	4	5	8	-5	-2.4	17
17	Lecce	18	3	6	9	-19	-8.6	15
18	Verona	17	4	3	10	-21	-5.9	15
19	Empoli	17	1	7	9	-16	-9.3	10
20	Monza	18	1	5	12	-16	-8.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	18	12	3	3	+28	+15.0	39
2	Napoli	18	10	6	2	+13	+5.0	36
3	Lazio	18	11	1	6	+5	+5.2	34
4	Inter	17	9	5	3	+21	+15.8	32
5	Milan	17	8	2	7	+5	+9.9	26
6	Juventus	16	6	7	3	+6	+4.6	25
7	Bologna	17	6	7	4	-2	-1.7	25
8	Roma	17	6	7	4	-2	+2.0	25
9	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	+6	-2.9	22
10	Udinese	18	5	5	8	-8	-4.5	20
11	Torino	18	4	7	7	-4	-8.6	19
12	Como	18	5	4	9	-5	-1.2	19
13	Genoa	17	4	5	8	-10	-6.2	17
14	Verona	18	5	2	11	-12	-13.7	17
15	Empoli	18	3	6	9	-12	-9.0	15
16	Cagliari	17	3	5	9	-8	-8.8	14
17	Parma	17	1	9	7	-11	-13.0	12
18	Lecce	17	3	3	11	-14	-14.2	12
19	Venezia	18	0	9	9	-16	-16.6	9
20	Monza	17	1	4	12	-22	-14.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.